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git.stella-ops.org/docs/modules/release-orchestrator/enhancements/progressive-delivery.md
2026-01-17 21:32:08 +02:00

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Progressive Delivery Enhancements

Overview

Progressive Delivery Enhancements transforms the existing progressive delivery system into a fully automated, metrics-driven deployment platform. This enhancement provides metric-driven canary automation, feature flag integration, automatic traffic percentage calculation based on error rates, and sophisticated rollout strategies.

This is a best-in-class implementation inspired by Argo Rollouts, Flagger, and modern GitOps practices, tailored for non-Kubernetes environments.


Design Principles

  1. Metrics-Driven Decisions: All traffic shifts based on objective data
  2. Fail-Fast, Recover-Faster: Detect issues early, rollback automatically
  3. Gradual Risk Exposure: Minimize blast radius through incremental rollouts
  4. Feature-Aware Deployments: Coordinate releases with feature flags
  5. Traffic Engineering: Fine-grained control over request routing
  6. Full Observability: Every decision traceable and auditable

Architecture

Component Overview

┌────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│                 Progressive Delivery System                            │
├────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│                                                                        │
│  ┌──────────────────┐    ┌───────────────────┐    ┌─────────────────┐ │
│  │ RolloutController│───▶│ MetricsAnalyzer   │───▶│ TrafficManager  │ │
│  │                  │    │                   │    │                 │ │
│  └──────────────────┘    └───────────────────┘    └─────────────────┘ │
│           │                       │                        │          │
│           ▼                       ▼                        ▼          │
│  ┌──────────────────┐    ┌───────────────────┐    ┌─────────────────┐ │
│  │ CanaryController │    │ FeatureFlagBridge │    │ LoadBalancer    │ │
│  │                  │    │                   │    │ Integrations    │ │
│  └──────────────────┘    └───────────────────┘    └─────────────────┘ │
│           │                       │                        │          │
│           ▼                       ▼                        ▼          │
│  ┌──────────────────┐    ┌───────────────────┐    ┌─────────────────┐ │
│  │ BlueGreenManager │    │ ExperimentEngine  │    │ RollbackTrigger │ │
│  │                  │    │                   │    │                 │ │
│  └──────────────────┘    └───────────────────┘    └─────────────────┘ │
│                                                                        │
└────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘

Key Components

1. RolloutController

Orchestrates progressive rollout execution:

public sealed class RolloutController
{
    public async Task<RolloutSession> StartRolloutAsync(
        RolloutConfig config,
        CancellationToken ct)
    {
        var session = new RolloutSession
        {
            Id = Guid.NewGuid(),
            ReleaseId = config.ReleaseId,
            EnvironmentId = config.EnvironmentId,
            Strategy = config.Strategy,
            StartedAt = _timeProvider.GetUtcNow(),
            Status = RolloutStatus.Initializing
        };

        await _sessionStore.SaveAsync(session, ct);

        // Initialize based on strategy
        session = config.Strategy.Type switch
        {
            RolloutStrategyType.Canary => await InitializeCanaryAsync(session, config, ct),
            RolloutStrategyType.BlueGreen => await InitializeBlueGreenAsync(session, config, ct),
            RolloutStrategyType.Linear => await InitializeLinearAsync(session, config, ct),
            RolloutStrategyType.Exponential => await InitializeExponentialAsync(session, config, ct),
            _ => throw new UnsupportedStrategyException(config.Strategy.Type)
        };

        // Start the rollout loop
        _ = RunRolloutLoopAsync(session, ct);

        return session;
    }

    private async Task RunRolloutLoopAsync(
        RolloutSession session,
        CancellationToken ct)
    {
        try
        {
            while (!ct.IsCancellationRequested && !session.IsTerminal)
            {
                session = await _sessionStore.GetAsync(session.Id, ct);

                // Check for manual pause
                if (session.Status == RolloutStatus.Paused)
                {
                    await Task.Delay(TimeSpan.FromSeconds(5), ct);
                    continue;
                }

                // Analyze current metrics
                var analysis = await _metricsAnalyzer.AnalyzeAsync(session, ct);

                // Make advancement decision
                var decision = await DecideNextActionAsync(session, analysis, ct);

                // Execute decision
                session = await ExecuteDecisionAsync(session, decision, ct);

                // Wait for observation period
                if (decision.Action == RolloutAction.Advance)
                {
                    await Task.Delay(session.CurrentStage.ObservationPeriod, ct);
                }
            }
        }
        catch (Exception ex)
        {
            _logger.LogError(ex, "Rollout loop failed for session {SessionId}", session.Id);
            await FailRolloutAsync(session, ex.Message, ct);
        }
    }

    private async Task<RolloutDecision> DecideNextActionAsync(
        RolloutSession session,
        MetricsAnalysis analysis,
        CancellationToken ct)
    {
        var decision = new RolloutDecision
        {
            SessionId = session.Id,
            DecidedAt = _timeProvider.GetUtcNow(),
            Analysis = analysis
        };

        // Check for failures
        if (analysis.HealthStatus == HealthStatus.Critical)
        {
            decision.Action = RolloutAction.Rollback;
            decision.Reason = "Critical health degradation detected";
            decision.TriggeringMetrics = analysis.CriticalMetrics;
            return decision;
        }

        // Check if current stage requirements met
        if (!IsStageRequirementsMet(session.CurrentStage, analysis))
        {
            if (analysis.StageDuration > session.CurrentStage.MaxDuration)
            {
                decision.Action = RolloutAction.Rollback;
                decision.Reason = $"Stage {session.CurrentStage.Name} exceeded max duration";
            }
            else
            {
                decision.Action = RolloutAction.Wait;
                decision.Reason = "Waiting for stage requirements";
            }
            return decision;
        }

        // Check if we're at final stage
        if (session.IsAtFinalStage)
        {
            decision.Action = RolloutAction.Complete;
            decision.Reason = "All stages completed successfully";
            return decision;
        }

        // Ready to advance
        decision.Action = RolloutAction.Advance;
        decision.NextStage = session.GetNextStage();
        decision.Reason = $"Stage {session.CurrentStage.Name} requirements met, advancing";

        return decision;
    }
}

public sealed record RolloutSession
{
    public Guid Id { get; init; }
    public Guid ReleaseId { get; init; }
    public Guid EnvironmentId { get; init; }
    public RolloutStrategy Strategy { get; init; }
    public RolloutStatus Status { get; init; }

    // Progress
    public int CurrentStageIndex { get; init; }
    public RolloutStage CurrentStage => Strategy.Stages[CurrentStageIndex];
    public bool IsAtFinalStage => CurrentStageIndex >= Strategy.Stages.Length - 1;
    public double CurrentTrafficPercent { get; init; }

    // Timing
    public DateTimeOffset StartedAt { get; init; }
    public DateTimeOffset? CompletedAt { get; init; }
    public DateTimeOffset StageStartedAt { get; init; }

    // History
    public ImmutableArray<RolloutDecision> DecisionHistory { get; init; }

    // Terminal check
    public bool IsTerminal => Status is RolloutStatus.Completed
        or RolloutStatus.RolledBack or RolloutStatus.Failed;
}

2. MetricsAnalyzer

Analyzes metrics for rollout decisions:

public sealed class MetricsAnalyzer
{
    private readonly ImmutableArray<IMetricsProvider> _providers;

    public async Task<MetricsAnalysis> AnalyzeAsync(
        RolloutSession session,
        CancellationToken ct)
    {
        var analysis = new MetricsAnalysis
        {
            SessionId = session.Id,
            AnalyzedAt = _timeProvider.GetUtcNow(),
            StageDuration = _timeProvider.GetUtcNow() - session.StageStartedAt
        };

        // Collect metrics from all providers
        var metrics = new Dictionary<string, MetricValue>();
        foreach (var provider in _providers)
        {
            var providerMetrics = await provider.CollectAsync(session, ct);
            foreach (var (name, value) in providerMetrics)
            {
                metrics[$"{provider.Name}:{name}"] = value;
            }
        }

        // Get baseline for comparison
        var baseline = await _baselineStore.GetAsync(session.EnvironmentId, ct);

        // Analyze each metric against thresholds
        foreach (var threshold in session.Strategy.SuccessThresholds)
        {
            var metricValue = metrics.GetValueOrDefault(threshold.MetricName);
            if (metricValue == null)
            {
                analysis.MissingMetrics.Add(threshold.MetricName);
                continue;
            }

            var evaluation = EvaluateMetric(metricValue, threshold, baseline);
            analysis.MetricEvaluations.Add(evaluation);

            if (evaluation.Status == MetricStatus.Critical)
            {
                analysis.CriticalMetrics.Add(evaluation);
            }
        }

        // Calculate overall health
        analysis.HealthStatus = CalculateOverallHealth(analysis.MetricEvaluations);

        // Calculate recommended traffic percentage
        analysis.RecommendedTrafficPercent = CalculateRecommendedTraffic(
            session, analysis.MetricEvaluations);

        return analysis;
    }

    private MetricEvaluation EvaluateMetric(
        MetricValue value,
        MetricThreshold threshold,
        Baseline? baseline)
    {
        var evaluation = new MetricEvaluation
        {
            MetricName = threshold.MetricName,
            CurrentValue = value.Value,
            Threshold = threshold,
            BaselineValue = baseline?.GetMetric(threshold.MetricName)
        };

        // Compare against threshold
        var meetsThreshold = threshold.Comparison switch
        {
            ComparisonOperator.LessThan => value.Value < threshold.Value,
            ComparisonOperator.LessThanOrEqual => value.Value <= threshold.Value,
            ComparisonOperator.GreaterThan => value.Value > threshold.Value,
            ComparisonOperator.GreaterThanOrEqual => value.Value >= threshold.Value,
            ComparisonOperator.Equal => Math.Abs(value.Value - threshold.Value) < 0.001,
            _ => false
        };

        // Compare against baseline if available
        double? baselineDeviation = null;
        if (evaluation.BaselineValue.HasValue)
        {
            baselineDeviation = (value.Value - evaluation.BaselineValue.Value)
                / Math.Max(evaluation.BaselineValue.Value, 0.001);
        }

        evaluation.MeetsThreshold = meetsThreshold;
        evaluation.BaselineDeviation = baselineDeviation;
        evaluation.Status = DetermineStatus(meetsThreshold, baselineDeviation, threshold);

        return evaluation;
    }

    private double CalculateRecommendedTraffic(
        RolloutSession session,
        IReadOnlyList<MetricEvaluation> evaluations)
    {
        // All metrics healthy -> advance to next stage's target
        if (evaluations.All(e => e.Status == MetricStatus.Healthy))
        {
            return session.IsAtFinalStage
                ? 100.0
                : session.GetNextStage().TrafficPercent;
        }

        // Some degradation -> hold current or reduce
        var worstStatus = evaluations.Max(e => e.Status);

        return worstStatus switch
        {
            MetricStatus.Warning =>
                session.CurrentTrafficPercent,  // Hold

            MetricStatus.Degraded =>
                Math.Max(session.CurrentTrafficPercent * 0.5, 5),  // Reduce 50%

            MetricStatus.Critical =>
                0,  // Rollback

            _ => session.CurrentTrafficPercent
        };
    }
}

public sealed record MetricsAnalysis
{
    public Guid SessionId { get; init; }
    public DateTimeOffset AnalyzedAt { get; init; }
    public TimeSpan StageDuration { get; init; }
    public HealthStatus HealthStatus { get; init; }
    public double RecommendedTrafficPercent { get; init; }
    public List<MetricEvaluation> MetricEvaluations { get; init; } = new();
    public List<MetricEvaluation> CriticalMetrics { get; init; } = new();
    public List<string> MissingMetrics { get; init; } = new();
}

3. CanaryController

Manages canary deployments with automated progression:

public sealed class CanaryController
{
    public async Task<CanaryDeployment> CreateCanaryAsync(
        CanaryConfig config,
        CancellationToken ct)
    {
        var canary = new CanaryDeployment
        {
            Id = Guid.NewGuid(),
            ReleaseId = config.ReleaseId,
            EnvironmentId = config.EnvironmentId,
            BaselineReleaseId = config.BaselineReleaseId,
            Stages = config.Stages,
            SuccessThresholds = config.SuccessThresholds,
            CreatedAt = _timeProvider.GetUtcNow(),
            Status = CanaryStatus.Initializing
        };

        // Deploy canary version
        await DeployCanaryVersionAsync(canary, ct);

        // Initialize traffic at first stage
        canary.CurrentStageIndex = 0;
        canary.CurrentTrafficPercent = canary.Stages[0].TrafficPercent;
        await _trafficManager.SetCanaryTrafficAsync(canary, ct);

        canary.Status = CanaryStatus.Running;
        canary.StageStartedAt = _timeProvider.GetUtcNow();

        await _canaryStore.SaveAsync(canary, ct);
        return canary;
    }

    public async Task<CanaryAnalysis> AnalyzeCanaryAsync(
        Guid canaryId,
        CancellationToken ct)
    {
        var canary = await _canaryStore.GetAsync(canaryId, ct);

        // Collect metrics for both versions
        var canaryMetrics = await CollectVersionMetricsAsync(
            canary.ReleaseId, canary.EnvironmentId, ct);
        var baselineMetrics = await CollectVersionMetricsAsync(
            canary.BaselineReleaseId, canary.EnvironmentId, ct);

        var analysis = new CanaryAnalysis
        {
            CanaryId = canaryId,
            AnalyzedAt = _timeProvider.GetUtcNow(),
            CanaryMetrics = canaryMetrics,
            BaselineMetrics = baselineMetrics
        };

        // Compare each threshold
        foreach (var threshold in canary.SuccessThresholds)
        {
            var canaryValue = canaryMetrics.GetValueOrDefault(threshold.MetricName);
            var baselineValue = baselineMetrics.GetValueOrDefault(threshold.MetricName);

            if (canaryValue == null || baselineValue == null)
            {
                analysis.InsufficientData = true;
                continue;
            }

            var comparison = new MetricComparison
            {
                MetricName = threshold.MetricName,
                CanaryValue = canaryValue.Value,
                BaselineValue = baselineValue.Value,
                Threshold = threshold
            };

            // Calculate statistical significance
            comparison.Difference = canaryValue.Value - baselineValue.Value;
            comparison.DifferencePercent = comparison.Difference / Math.Max(baselineValue.Value, 0.001);
            comparison.IsStatisticallySignificant = CalculateSignificance(
                canaryValue, baselineValue, threshold.MinSampleSize);

            // Determine if canary is better/worse/same
            comparison.Verdict = DetermineVerdict(comparison, threshold);

            analysis.Comparisons.Add(comparison);
        }

        // Overall verdict
        analysis.OverallVerdict = DetermineOverallVerdict(analysis.Comparisons);

        return analysis;
    }

    private CanaryVerdict DetermineVerdict(
        MetricComparison comparison,
        MetricThreshold threshold)
    {
        if (!comparison.IsStatisticallySignificant)
            return CanaryVerdict.Inconclusive;

        var isBetter = threshold.DesiredDirection switch
        {
            MetricDirection.Lower => comparison.Difference < 0,
            MetricDirection.Higher => comparison.Difference > 0,
            _ => false
        };

        if (isBetter)
            return CanaryVerdict.Better;

        // Check if within acceptable margin
        var margin = Math.Abs(comparison.DifferencePercent);
        if (margin <= threshold.AcceptableMargin)
            return CanaryVerdict.Same;

        return CanaryVerdict.Worse;
    }
}

public sealed record CanaryDeployment
{
    public Guid Id { get; init; }
    public Guid ReleaseId { get; init; }
    public Guid BaselineReleaseId { get; init; }
    public Guid EnvironmentId { get; init; }
    public CanaryStatus Status { get; init; }

    // Configuration
    public ImmutableArray<CanaryStage> Stages { get; init; }
    public ImmutableArray<MetricThreshold> SuccessThresholds { get; init; }

    // Progress
    public int CurrentStageIndex { get; init; }
    public double CurrentTrafficPercent { get; init; }
    public DateTimeOffset StageStartedAt { get; init; }

    // Analysis history
    public ImmutableArray<CanaryAnalysis> AnalysisHistory { get; init; }

    // Timing
    public DateTimeOffset CreatedAt { get; init; }
    public DateTimeOffset? CompletedAt { get; init; }
}

4. FeatureFlagBridge

Coordinates deployments with feature flags:

public sealed class FeatureFlagBridge
{
    private readonly ImmutableArray<IFeatureFlagProvider> _providers;

    public async Task<FeatureFlagSync> SyncFlagsForReleaseAsync(
        Guid releaseId,
        FeatureFlagSyncConfig config,
        CancellationToken ct)
    {
        var release = await _releaseStore.GetAsync(releaseId, ct);
        var flags = await GetAssociatedFlagsAsync(releaseId, ct);

        var sync = new FeatureFlagSync
        {
            Id = Guid.NewGuid(),
            ReleaseId = releaseId,
            SyncedAt = _timeProvider.GetUtcNow()
        };

        foreach (var flag in flags)
        {
            var provider = _providers.First(p => p.Name == flag.Provider);

            switch (config.Action)
            {
                case FlagSyncAction.EnableForTraffic:
                    // Enable flag for canary traffic percentage
                    await provider.SetRolloutPercentageAsync(
                        flag.Key, config.TrafficPercent, ct);
                    break;

                case FlagSyncAction.EnableForUsers:
                    // Enable for specific user segment
                    await provider.EnableForSegmentAsync(
                        flag.Key, config.UserSegment, ct);
                    break;

                case FlagSyncAction.EnableFully:
                    // Enable 100%
                    await provider.EnableAsync(flag.Key, ct);
                    break;

                case FlagSyncAction.Disable:
                    // Disable flag (rollback scenario)
                    await provider.DisableAsync(flag.Key, ct);
                    break;
            }

            sync.FlagsUpdated.Add(new FlagUpdate
            {
                FlagKey = flag.Key,
                Provider = flag.Provider,
                Action = config.Action,
                NewState = await provider.GetStateAsync(flag.Key, ct)
            });
        }

        return sync;
    }

    public async Task<IReadOnlyList<FeatureFlag>> GetAssociatedFlagsAsync(
        Guid releaseId,
        CancellationToken ct)
    {
        var release = await _releaseStore.GetAsync(releaseId, ct);

        // Get flags from release metadata
        var flagKeys = release.Metadata.GetValueOrDefault("feature_flags", "")
            .Split(',', StringSplitOptions.RemoveEmptyEntries);

        var flags = new List<FeatureFlag>();
        foreach (var key in flagKeys)
        {
            foreach (var provider in _providers)
            {
                var flag = await provider.GetFlagAsync(key, ct);
                if (flag != null)
                {
                    flags.Add(flag);
                    break;
                }
            }
        }

        return flags;
    }

    public async Task CoordinateRolloutWithFlagsAsync(
        RolloutSession session,
        CancellationToken ct)
    {
        var flags = await GetAssociatedFlagsAsync(session.ReleaseId, ct);
        if (!flags.Any())
            return;

        // Sync flag rollout percentage with traffic percentage
        await SyncFlagsForReleaseAsync(session.ReleaseId, new FeatureFlagSyncConfig
        {
            Action = FlagSyncAction.EnableForTraffic,
            TrafficPercent = session.CurrentTrafficPercent
        }, ct);

        _logger.LogInformation(
            "Synced {FlagCount} feature flags to {TrafficPercent}%",
            flags.Count, session.CurrentTrafficPercent);
    }
}

public interface IFeatureFlagProvider
{
    string Name { get; }
    Task<FeatureFlag?> GetFlagAsync(string key, CancellationToken ct);
    Task EnableAsync(string key, CancellationToken ct);
    Task DisableAsync(string key, CancellationToken ct);
    Task SetRolloutPercentageAsync(string key, double percent, CancellationToken ct);
    Task EnableForSegmentAsync(string key, string segment, CancellationToken ct);
    Task<FlagState> GetStateAsync(string key, CancellationToken ct);
}

// Implementations for popular providers
public sealed class LaunchDarklyProvider : IFeatureFlagProvider { }
public sealed class SplitProvider : IFeatureFlagProvider { }
public sealed class UnleashProvider : IFeatureFlagProvider { }
public sealed class FlagsmithProvider : IFeatureFlagProvider { }
public sealed class ConfigCatProvider : IFeatureFlagProvider { }

5. TrafficManager

Manages traffic routing across load balancers:

public sealed class TrafficManager
{
    private readonly ImmutableArray<ILoadBalancerAdapter> _adapters;

    public async Task<TrafficConfiguration> SetTrafficSplitAsync(
        TrafficSplitRequest request,
        CancellationToken ct)
    {
        var targets = await _targetStore.GetByEnvironmentAsync(request.EnvironmentId, ct);

        // Group targets by load balancer type
        var targetsByLB = targets.GroupBy(t => t.LoadBalancerType);

        var config = new TrafficConfiguration
        {
            Id = Guid.NewGuid(),
            EnvironmentId = request.EnvironmentId,
            AppliedAt = _timeProvider.GetUtcNow()
        };

        foreach (var group in targetsByLB)
        {
            var adapter = _adapters.FirstOrDefault(a => a.Type == group.Key);
            if (adapter == null)
            {
                _logger.LogWarning("No adapter for load balancer type {Type}", group.Key);
                continue;
            }

            foreach (var target in group)
            {
                await adapter.SetWeightsAsync(target, request.Weights, ct);
                config.AppliedTargets.Add(target.Id);
            }
        }

        await _configStore.SaveAsync(config, ct);
        return config;
    }

    public async Task SetCanaryTrafficAsync(
        CanaryDeployment canary,
        CancellationToken ct)
    {
        var weights = new TrafficWeights
        {
            Weights = new Dictionary<string, double>
            {
                [canary.BaselineReleaseId.ToString()] = 100 - canary.CurrentTrafficPercent,
                [canary.ReleaseId.ToString()] = canary.CurrentTrafficPercent
            }.ToImmutableDictionary()
        };

        await SetTrafficSplitAsync(new TrafficSplitRequest
        {
            EnvironmentId = canary.EnvironmentId,
            Weights = weights
        }, ct);
    }

    public async Task<TrafficMetrics> GetTrafficMetricsAsync(
        Guid environmentId,
        CancellationToken ct)
    {
        var targets = await _targetStore.GetByEnvironmentAsync(environmentId, ct);
        var metrics = new TrafficMetrics
        {
            EnvironmentId = environmentId,
            CollectedAt = _timeProvider.GetUtcNow()
        };

        foreach (var target in targets)
        {
            var adapter = _adapters.FirstOrDefault(a => a.Type == target.LoadBalancerType);
            if (adapter == null)
                continue;

            var targetMetrics = await adapter.GetMetricsAsync(target, ct);
            metrics.TargetMetrics[target.Id] = targetMetrics;
        }

        return metrics;
    }
}

public interface ILoadBalancerAdapter
{
    LoadBalancerType Type { get; }
    Task SetWeightsAsync(Target target, TrafficWeights weights, CancellationToken ct);
    Task<TargetTrafficMetrics> GetMetricsAsync(Target target, CancellationToken ct);
    Task<bool> HealthCheckAsync(Target target, CancellationToken ct);
}

// Adapters for various load balancers
public sealed class NginxAdapter : ILoadBalancerAdapter
{
    public LoadBalancerType Type => LoadBalancerType.Nginx;

    public async Task SetWeightsAsync(Target target, TrafficWeights weights, CancellationToken ct)
    {
        // Generate nginx upstream config with weights
        var config = GenerateUpstreamConfig(target, weights);

        // Write config and reload
        await WriteConfigAsync(target, config, ct);
        await ReloadNginxAsync(target, ct);
    }

    private string GenerateUpstreamConfig(Target target, TrafficWeights weights)
    {
        var sb = new StringBuilder();
        sb.AppendLine($"upstream {target.Name} {{");

        foreach (var (version, weight) in weights.Weights)
        {
            var servers = GetServersForVersion(target, version);
            foreach (var server in servers)
            {
                sb.AppendLine($"    server {server} weight={weight};");
            }
        }

        sb.AppendLine("}");
        return sb.ToString();
    }
}

public sealed class HAProxyAdapter : ILoadBalancerAdapter { }
public sealed class TraefikAdapter : ILoadBalancerAdapter { }
public sealed class AWSALBAdapter : ILoadBalancerAdapter { }
public sealed class EnvoyAdapter : ILoadBalancerAdapter { }

6. ExperimentEngine

Manages A/B experiments:

public sealed class ExperimentEngine
{
    public async Task<Experiment> CreateExperimentAsync(
        ExperimentConfig config,
        CancellationToken ct)
    {
        var experiment = new Experiment
        {
            Id = Guid.NewGuid(),
            Name = config.Name,
            EnvironmentId = config.EnvironmentId,
            Hypothesis = config.Hypothesis,
            Variants = config.Variants,
            TrafficAllocation = config.TrafficAllocation,
            SuccessMetrics = config.SuccessMetrics,
            GuardrailMetrics = config.GuardrailMetrics,
            MinSampleSize = config.MinSampleSize,
            MaxDuration = config.MaxDuration,
            CreatedAt = _timeProvider.GetUtcNow(),
            Status = ExperimentStatus.Draft
        };

        await _experimentStore.SaveAsync(experiment, ct);
        return experiment;
    }

    public async Task<Experiment> StartExperimentAsync(
        Guid experimentId,
        CancellationToken ct)
    {
        var experiment = await _experimentStore.GetAsync(experimentId, ct);

        // Validate prerequisites
        await ValidateExperimentAsync(experiment, ct);

        // Deploy all variants
        foreach (var variant in experiment.Variants)
        {
            await DeployVariantAsync(experiment, variant, ct);
        }

        // Set up traffic split
        var weights = new TrafficWeights
        {
            Weights = experiment.Variants
                .ToImmutableDictionary(
                    v => v.Id.ToString(),
                    v => experiment.TrafficAllocation.GetValueOrDefault(v.Id, 0))
        };

        await _trafficManager.SetTrafficSplitAsync(new TrafficSplitRequest
        {
            EnvironmentId = experiment.EnvironmentId,
            Weights = weights
        }, ct);

        experiment = experiment with
        {
            Status = ExperimentStatus.Running,
            StartedAt = _timeProvider.GetUtcNow()
        };

        await _experimentStore.SaveAsync(experiment, ct);
        return experiment;
    }

    public async Task<ExperimentResults> AnalyzeExperimentAsync(
        Guid experimentId,
        CancellationToken ct)
    {
        var experiment = await _experimentStore.GetAsync(experimentId, ct);
        var results = new ExperimentResults
        {
            ExperimentId = experimentId,
            AnalyzedAt = _timeProvider.GetUtcNow()
        };

        // Collect metrics for each variant
        foreach (var variant in experiment.Variants)
        {
            var variantMetrics = await CollectVariantMetricsAsync(experiment, variant, ct);
            results.VariantMetrics[variant.Id] = variantMetrics;
        }

        // Statistical analysis
        var control = experiment.Variants.First(v => v.IsControl);
        foreach (var variant in experiment.Variants.Where(v => !v.IsControl))
        {
            var analysis = PerformStatisticalAnalysis(
                results.VariantMetrics[control.Id],
                results.VariantMetrics[variant.Id],
                experiment.SuccessMetrics);

            results.VariantAnalyses[variant.Id] = analysis;
        }

        // Check guardrail metrics
        results.GuardrailViolations = await CheckGuardrailsAsync(experiment, results, ct);

        // Determine winner
        results.Winner = DetermineWinner(experiment, results);
        results.Confidence = CalculateOverallConfidence(results);
        results.Recommendation = GenerateRecommendation(experiment, results);

        return results;
    }

    private VariantAnalysis PerformStatisticalAnalysis(
        VariantMetrics control,
        VariantMetrics treatment,
        ImmutableArray<MetricDefinition> successMetrics)
    {
        var analysis = new VariantAnalysis();

        foreach (var metric in successMetrics)
        {
            var controlValues = control.GetMetricValues(metric.Name);
            var treatmentValues = treatment.GetMetricValues(metric.Name);

            // Calculate effect size
            var effectSize = (treatmentValues.Mean - controlValues.Mean) / controlValues.Mean;

            // Perform t-test
            var tTest = PerformTTest(controlValues, treatmentValues);

            // Calculate confidence interval
            var ci = CalculateConfidenceInterval(controlValues, treatmentValues, 0.95);

            analysis.MetricResults[metric.Name] = new MetricAnalysisResult
            {
                ControlMean = controlValues.Mean,
                TreatmentMean = treatmentValues.Mean,
                EffectSize = effectSize,
                PValue = tTest.PValue,
                IsSignificant = tTest.PValue < 0.05,
                ConfidenceInterval = ci,
                SampleSize = controlValues.Count + treatmentValues.Count
            };
        }

        return analysis;
    }
}

public sealed record Experiment
{
    public Guid Id { get; init; }
    public string Name { get; init; }
    public Guid EnvironmentId { get; init; }
    public string Hypothesis { get; init; }
    public ExperimentStatus Status { get; init; }

    // Variants
    public ImmutableArray<ExperimentVariant> Variants { get; init; }
    public ImmutableDictionary<Guid, double> TrafficAllocation { get; init; }

    // Metrics
    public ImmutableArray<MetricDefinition> SuccessMetrics { get; init; }
    public ImmutableArray<MetricDefinition> GuardrailMetrics { get; init; }

    // Configuration
    public int MinSampleSize { get; init; }
    public TimeSpan MaxDuration { get; init; }

    // Timing
    public DateTimeOffset CreatedAt { get; init; }
    public DateTimeOffset? StartedAt { get; init; }
    public DateTimeOffset? EndedAt { get; init; }
}

Rollout Strategies

Canary Strategy

strategy:
  type: canary
  stages:
    - name: "canary-5"
      traffic_percent: 5
      duration: "00:15:00"
      observation_period: "00:05:00"
    - name: "canary-25"
      traffic_percent: 25
      duration: "00:30:00"
      observation_period: "00:10:00"
    - name: "canary-50"
      traffic_percent: 50
      duration: "01:00:00"
      observation_period: "00:15:00"
    - name: "full-rollout"
      traffic_percent: 100
      duration: "00:00:00"

  success_thresholds:
    - metric: error_rate
      comparison: less_than
      value: 0.01
      desired_direction: lower
    - metric: latency_p99
      comparison: less_than
      value: 1000
      desired_direction: lower

  auto_rollback:
    enabled: true
    on_metric_failure: true
    on_analysis_failure: true

Linear Strategy

strategy:
  type: linear
  increment_percent: 10
  increment_interval: "00:10:00"
  max_traffic_percent: 100

  success_thresholds:
    - metric: success_rate
      comparison: greater_than
      value: 0.99

Exponential Strategy

strategy:
  type: exponential
  initial_percent: 1
  multiplier: 2.0
  max_traffic_percent: 100
  stage_duration: "00:10:00"

  # Results in: 1% → 2% → 4% → 8% → 16% → 32% → 64% → 100%

Blue-Green Strategy

strategy:
  type: blue_green
  stages:
    - name: "deploy-green"
      action: deploy_standby
    - name: "smoke-test"
      action: run_tests
      test_suite: smoke
    - name: "switch-traffic"
      action: switch_traffic
      switch_mode: instant  # or 'gradual'
    - name: "verify"
      action: verify
      duration: "00:30:00"
    - name: "cleanup"
      action: terminate_blue

API Design

REST Endpoints

# Rollouts
POST   /api/v1/rollouts                           # Start rollout
GET    /api/v1/rollouts                           # List rollouts
GET    /api/v1/rollouts/{id}                      # Get rollout
POST   /api/v1/rollouts/{id}/pause                # Pause rollout
POST   /api/v1/rollouts/{id}/resume               # Resume rollout
POST   /api/v1/rollouts/{id}/advance              # Manual advance
POST   /api/v1/rollouts/{id}/rollback             # Manual rollback
POST   /api/v1/rollouts/{id}/complete             # Force complete

# Canary
POST   /api/v1/canary                             # Start canary
GET    /api/v1/canary/{id}                        # Get canary
GET    /api/v1/canary/{id}/analysis               # Get analysis

# Experiments
POST   /api/v1/experiments                        # Create experiment
GET    /api/v1/experiments                        # List experiments
GET    /api/v1/experiments/{id}                   # Get experiment
POST   /api/v1/experiments/{id}/start             # Start experiment
POST   /api/v1/experiments/{id}/stop              # Stop experiment
GET    /api/v1/experiments/{id}/results           # Get results

# Traffic
GET    /api/v1/traffic/{environmentId}            # Get traffic config
POST   /api/v1/traffic/{environmentId}            # Set traffic split
GET    /api/v1/traffic/{environmentId}/metrics    # Get traffic metrics

# Feature Flags
GET    /api/v1/releases/{id}/flags                # Get release flags
POST   /api/v1/releases/{id}/flags/sync           # Sync flags

Metrics & Observability

Prometheus Metrics

# Rollout Progress
stella_rollout_traffic_percent{session_id, stage}
stella_rollout_stage_duration_seconds{session_id, stage}
stella_rollout_decisions_total{session_id, action}

# Canary Analysis
stella_canary_health_score{canary_id}
stella_canary_metric_comparison{canary_id, metric, verdict}
stella_canary_sample_size{canary_id, variant}

# Experiments
stella_experiment_variant_traffic{experiment_id, variant_id}
stella_experiment_metric_value{experiment_id, variant_id, metric}
stella_experiment_statistical_significance{experiment_id, variant_id}

# Traffic
stella_traffic_split_percent{environment_id, version}
stella_traffic_requests_total{environment_id, version}
stella_traffic_errors_total{environment_id, version}

Test Strategy

Unit Tests

  • Metric threshold evaluation
  • Statistical significance calculation
  • Traffic weight calculation
  • Strategy stage progression

Integration Tests

  • Full canary lifecycle
  • Experiment creation and analysis
  • Traffic manager with mock LB
  • Feature flag synchronization

Chaos Tests

  • Metrics provider failures
  • Load balancer unavailability
  • Rapid traffic shifts

Golden Tests

  • Deterministic analysis results
  • Consistent winner selection
  • Reproducible rollout decisions

Migration Path

Phase 1: Metrics Integration (Week 1-2)

  • Metrics analyzer
  • Baseline management
  • Provider adapters

Phase 2: Rollout Controller (Week 3-4)

  • Session management
  • Stage progression
  • Decision engine

Phase 3: Canary (Week 5-6)

  • Canary controller
  • Statistical analysis
  • Auto-progression

Phase 4: Traffic Management (Week 7-8)

  • Load balancer adapters
  • Weight synchronization
  • Health monitoring

Phase 5: Feature Flags (Week 9-10)

  • Provider integrations
  • Rollout coordination
  • Flag lifecycle

Phase 6: Experiments (Week 11-12)

  • Experiment engine
  • Statistical analysis
  • Results visualization