git.stella-ops.org/docs/modules/signals/decay/2025-12-01-confidence-decay.md

Confidence Decay Controls · Signals Runtime

Compiled: 2025-12-01 (UTC) Scope: Close U1–U10 gaps from docs/product-advisories/31-Nov-2025 FINDINGS.md for confidence decay of unknowns/signals. Status: Draft for review on 2025-12-03; to be signed (DSSE) after sign-off.

Decisions (U1–U10)

• τ governance (U1): All τ values live in confidence_decay_config.yaml, change-controlled via DSSE-signed PRs; allowable τ range 1–90 days. Changes require dual approval (Signals + Policy), recorded in history.
• Floor / freeze (U2): confidence_floor per severity; is_confidence_frozen=true when SLA-bound or manual pin. Floors: Critical 0.60, High 0.45, Medium 0.30, Low 0.20. Freeze auto-expires at freeze_until.
• Weighted signals (U3): Signal taxonomy with weights: exploit=1.0, customer_incident=0.9, threat_intel=0.7, code_change=0.4, artifact_refresh=0.3, metadata_touch=0.1. last_signal_weighted_at uses max(weighted timestamp).
• Time source / drift (U4): All timestamps in UTC; decay uses monotonic clock fallback; reject events >5 minutes in the future or >30 days backdated, log corrections.
• Deterministic recompute (U5): Nightly job at 03:00 UTC recomputes decay for all items; emits decay_snapshot_YYYY-MM-DD.ndjson with SHA256 and checksum record. On-read recompute only if snapshot is older than 24h.
• SLA coupling (U6): Items with active SLA clamp to sla_floor (0.60 Critical, 0.50 High) until SLA met. SLA flag and floor are emitted in API.
• Uncertainty linkage (U7): Confidence is capped by (1 - uncertainty_score); if uncertainty_score ≥0.4, band forced to "under_review" and alerts fire.
• Backfill & migration (U8): Initial migration seeds last_signal_at from latest activity; default τ from entity profile; dry-run impact report required; backfill script outputs before/after bands.
• API/UX surfacing (U9): New fields: confidence, confidence_band (critical/high/medium/low/under_review), tau_days, is_frozen, confidence_floor, uncertainty_score, last_signal_weighted_at. Sort default: priority * confidence.
• Observability & alerts (U10): Counters/gauges: confidence_recalc_latency, items_below_floor, signals_weighted_by_type{type}, decay_snapshots_age_hours, uncertainty_forced_under_review. Alerts on missing nightly snapshot, decay drift >1 band, or SLA items below floor.

Reference Config (draft)

version: 1
updated_at: 2025-12-01T00:00:00Z
entities:
  vulnerability:
    tau_days: 21
    tau_min: 7
    tau_max: 90
    confidence_floor: {critical: 0.60, high: 0.45, medium: 0.30, low: 0.20}
    sla_floor: {critical: 0.60, high: 0.50}
    freeze_default_days: 30
  incident:
    tau_days: 14
    tau_min: 3
    tau_max: 60
signals_taxonomy:
  exploit: 1.0
  customer_incident: 0.9
  threat_intel: 0.7
  code_change: 0.4
  artifact_refresh: 0.3
  metadata_touch: 0.1
time:
  reject_future_minutes: 5
  reject_backdated_days: 30
recompute:
  schedule_utc: "03:00"
  snapshot_retention_days: 30
observability:
  alerts:
    missing_snapshot_hours: 26
    sla_floor_breach: true
    uncertainty_band_force: 0.4
signing:
  predicate: stella.ops/confidenceDecayConfig@v1
  dsse_required: true

Operational Rules

• Config changes must produce a new DSSE envelope and update the checksum in the nightly snapshot header.
• Nightly job writes decay_snapshot_<date>.ndjson (sorted by item_id) plus SHA256SUMS; both stored in Evidence Locker.
• Any on-read recompute must emit an audit log with reasons (stale snapshot or forced recalculation).

Migration Playbook

1. Run dry-run backfill: compute bands with proposed config; write decay_backfill_diff.ndjson (before/after bands, delta) and checksum.
2. Get dual approval; sign confidence_decay_config.yaml with DSSE predicate above.
3. Apply config, execute full recompute, publish snapshot + checksums, update observability dashboard baselines.

API Notes

• Add fields to Signals API and CLI responses; ensure canonical serialization (sorted keys, UTC timestamps, fixed decimals 3dp) to avoid hash drift.
• Bands map: >=0.75 critical, >=0.55 high, >=0.35 medium, >=0.20 low, else under_review.

Evidence & Storage

• Store config DSSE, snapshots, and backfill reports in Evidence Locker with retention class signals-decay-config.
• For offline kits, include latest config DSSE + last 3 snapshots and checksums.

Open Items for Review (12-03)

• Confirm weights for threat_intel vs exploit; adjust if customer data suggests different ordering.
• Confirm under_review threshold (currently uncertainty ≥0.4).
• Align with Policy on SLA floors for High severity (0.50 proposed).