git.stella-ops.org/docs/modules/excititor/trust-lattice.md

# VEX Trust Lattice Specification

> **Status**: Implementation Complete (Sprint 7100)
> **Version**: 1.0.0
> **Last Updated**: 2025-12-22
> **Source Advisory**: `docs/product-advisories/archived/22-Dec-2026 - Building a Trust Lattice for VEX Sources.md`

## 1. Overview

The VEX Trust Lattice provides a mathematically rigorous framework for converting heterogeneous VEX claims from multiple sources into a single, signed, reproducible verdict with a numeric confidence and a complete audit trail.

### Goals

1. **Explainability**: Every verdict includes a full breakdown of how it was computed
2. **Reproducibility**: Same inputs always produce identical verdicts (deterministic)
3. **Auditability**: Signed verdict manifests with pinned inputs for regulatory compliance
4. **Tunability**: Per-tenant, per-source trust configuration without code changes

### Non-Goals

- Real-time vulnerability detection (handled by Scanner)
- VEX document ingestion (handled by Excititor core)
- Policy enforcement (handled by Policy Engine)

---

## 2. Trust Vector Model

Each VEX source is assigned a 3-component trust vector scored in the range [0..1].

### 2.1 Provenance (P)

Measures cryptographic and process integrity of the source.

| Score | Description |
|-------|-------------|
| 1.00 | DSSE-signed, timestamped, Rekor/Git anchored, key in allow-list, rotation policy OK |
| 0.75 | DSSE-signed + public key known, but no transparency log |
| 0.40 | Unsigned but retrieved via authenticated, immutable artifact repo |
| 0.10 | Opaque/CSV/email/manual import |

### 2.2 Coverage (C)

Measures how well the statement's scope maps to the target asset.

| Score | Description |
|-------|-------------|
| 1.00 | Exact package + version/build digest + feature/flag context matched |
| 0.75 | Exact package + version range matched; partial feature context |
| 0.50 | Product-level only; maps via CPE/PURL family |
| 0.25 | Family-level heuristics; no version proof |

### 2.3 Replayability (R)

Measures whether the claim can be deterministically re-derived.

| Score | Description |
|-------|-------------|
| 1.00 | All inputs pinned (feeds, SBOM hash, ruleset hash, lattice version); replays byte-identical |
| 0.60 | Inputs mostly pinned; non-deterministic ordering tolerated but stable outcome |
| 0.20 | Ephemeral APIs; no snapshot |

### 2.4 Weight Configuration

The base trust score is computed as:

```
BaseTrust(S) = wP * P + wC * C + wR * R
```

**Default weights:**
- `wP = 0.45` (Provenance)
- `wC = 0.35` (Coverage)
- `wR = 0.20` (Replayability)

Weights are tunable per policy and sum to 1.0.

---

## 3. Claim Scoring

### 3.1 Base Trust Calculation

```csharp
double BaseTrust(double P, double C, double R, TrustWeights W)
    => W.wP * P + W.wC * C + W.wR * R;
```

### 3.2 Claim Strength Multipliers (M)

Each VEX claim carries a strength multiplier based on evidence quality:

| Strength | Value | Description |
|----------|-------|-------------|
| ExploitabilityWithReachability | 1.00 | Exploitability analysis + reachability proof subgraph provided |
| ConfigWithEvidence | 0.80 | Config/feature-flag reason with evidence |
| VendorBlanket | 0.60 | Vendor blanket statement |
| UnderInvestigation | 0.40 | "Under investigation" |

### 3.3 Freshness Decay (F)

Time-decay curve with configurable half-life:

```csharp
double Freshness(DateTime issuedAt, DateTime cutoff, double halfLifeDays = 90, double floor = 0.35)
{
    var ageDays = (cutoff - issuedAt).TotalDays;
    var decay = Math.Exp(-Math.Log(2) * ageDays / halfLifeDays);
    return Math.Max(decay, floor);
}
```

**Parameters:**
- `halfLifeDays = 90` (default): Score halves every 90 days
- `floor = 0.35` (default): Minimum freshness unless revoked

### 3.4 ClaimScore Formula

```
ClaimScore = BaseTrust(S) * M * F
```

**Example calculation:**
```
Source: Red Hat (Vendor)
  P = 0.90, C = 0.75, R = 0.60
  BaseTrust = 0.45*0.90 + 0.35*0.75 + 0.20*0.60 = 0.405 + 0.2625 + 0.12 = 0.7875

Claim: ConfigWithEvidence (M = 0.80)
Freshness: 30 days old (F = 0.79)

ClaimScore = 0.7875 * 0.80 * 0.79 = 0.498
```

---

## 4. Lattice Merge Algorithm

### 4.1 Partial Ordering

Claims are ordered by a tuple: `(scope_specificity, ClaimScore)`.

Scope specificity levels:
1. Exact digest match (highest)
2. Exact version match
3. Version range match
4. Product family match
5. Platform match (lowest)

### 4.2 Conflict Detection

Conflicts occur when claims for the same (CVE, Asset) have different statuses:

```csharp
bool HasConflict(IEnumerable<Claim> claims)
    => claims.Select(c => c.Status).Distinct().Count() > 1;
```

### 4.3 Conflict Penalty

When conflicts exist, apply a penalty to weaker/older claims:

```csharp
const double ConflictPenalty = 0.25;

if (contradictory)
{
    var strongest = claims.OrderByDescending(c => c.Score).First();
    foreach (var claim in claims.Where(c => c.Status != strongest.Status))
    {
        claim.AdjustedScore = claim.Score * (1 - ConflictPenalty);
    }
}
```

### 4.4 Winner Selection

Final verdict is selected by:

```csharp
var winner = scored
    .OrderByDescending(x => (x.Claim.ScopeSpecificity, x.AdjustedScore))
    .First();
```

### 4.5 Audit Trail Generation

Every merge produces:

```csharp
public sealed record MergeResult
{
    public VexStatus Status { get; init; }
    public double Confidence { get; init; }
    public ImmutableArray<VerdictExplanation> Explanations { get; init; }
    public ImmutableArray<string> EvidenceRefs { get; init; }
    public string PolicyHash { get; init; }
    public string LatticeVersion { get; init; }
}
```

---

## 5. Policy Gates

Gates are evaluated after merge to enforce policy requirements.

### 5.1 MinimumConfidenceGate

Requires minimum confidence by environment for certain statuses.

```yaml
gates:
  minimumConfidence:
    enabled: true
    thresholds:
      production: 0.75
      staging: 0.60
      development: 0.40
    applyToStatuses:
      - not_affected
      - fixed
```

**Behavior**: Fails if confidence < threshold for specified statuses.

### 5.2 UnknownsBudgetGate

Limits exposure to unknown/unscored dependencies.

```yaml
gates:
  unknownsBudget:
    enabled: true
    maxUnknownCount: 5
    maxCumulativeUncertainty: 2.0
```

**Behavior**: Fails if:
- `#unknown_deps > maxUnknownCount`, OR
- `sum(1 - ClaimScore) > maxCumulativeUncertainty`

### 5.3 SourceQuotaGate

Prevents single-source dominance without corroboration.

```yaml
gates:
  sourceQuota:
    enabled: true
    maxInfluencePercent: 60
    corroborationDelta: 0.10
```

**Behavior**: Fails if single source influence > 60% AND no second source within delta=0.10.

### 5.4 ReachabilityRequirementGate

Requires reachability proof for critical vulnerabilities.

```yaml
gates:
  reachabilityRequirement:
    enabled: true
    severityThreshold: CRITICAL
    requiredForStatuses:
      - not_affected
    bypassReasons:
      - component_not_present
```

**Behavior**: Fails if `not_affected` on CRITICAL CVE without reachability proof (unless bypass reason applies).

---

## 6. Deterministic Replay

### 6.1 Input Pinning

To guarantee "same inputs → same verdict", pin:

- SBOM digest(s)
- Vuln feed snapshot IDs
- VEX document digests
- Reachability graph IDs
- Policy file hash
- Lattice version
- Clock cutoff (evaluation timestamp)

### 6.2 Verdict Manifest

```json
{
  "manifestId": "verd:tenant:asset:cve:1234567890",
  "tenant": "acme-corp",
  "assetDigest": "sha256:abc123...",
  "vulnerabilityId": "CVE-2025-12345",
  "inputs": {
    "sbomDigests": ["sha256:..."],
    "vulnFeedSnapshotIds": ["nvd:2025-12-22"],
    "vexDocumentDigests": ["sha256:..."],
    "reachabilityGraphIds": ["graph:..."],
    "clockCutoff": "2025-12-22T12:00:00Z"
  },
  "result": {
    "status": "not_affected",
    "confidence": 0.82,
    "explanations": [...]
  },
  "policyHash": "sha256:...",
  "latticeVersion": "1.2.0",
  "evaluatedAt": "2025-12-22T12:00:01Z",
  "manifestDigest": "sha256:..."
}
```

### 6.3 Signing

Verdict manifests are signed using DSSE with predicate type:

```
https://stella-ops.org/attestations/vex-verdict/1
```

### 6.4 Replay Verification

```
POST /api/v1/authority/verdicts/{manifestId}/replay

Response:
{
  "success": true,
  "originalManifest": {...},
  "replayedManifest": {...},
  "differences": [],
  "signatureValid": true
}
```

---

## 7. Configuration Reference

### Full Configuration Example

```yaml
# etc/trust-lattice.yaml
version: "1.0"

trustLattice:
  weights:
    provenance: 0.45
    coverage: 0.35
    replayability: 0.20

  freshness:
    halfLifeDays: 90
    floor: 0.35

  conflictPenalty: 0.25

  defaults:
    vendor:
      provenance: 0.90
      coverage: 0.70
      replayability: 0.60
    distro:
      provenance: 0.80
      coverage: 0.85
      replayability: 0.60
    internal:
      provenance: 0.85
      coverage: 0.95
      replayability: 0.90

gates:
  minimumConfidence:
    enabled: true
    thresholds:
      production: 0.75
      staging: 0.60
      development: 0.40

  unknownsBudget:
    enabled: true
    maxUnknownCount: 5
    maxCumulativeUncertainty: 2.0

  sourceQuota:
    enabled: true
    maxInfluencePercent: 60
    corroborationDelta: 0.10

  reachabilityRequirement:
    enabled: true
    severityThreshold: CRITICAL
```

---

## 8. API Reference

### Endpoints

| Method | Path | Description |
|--------|------|-------------|
| GET | `/api/v1/excititor/verdicts/{manifestId}` | Get verdict manifest |
| GET | `/api/v1/excititor/verdicts` | List verdicts (paginated) |
| POST | `/api/v1/authority/verdicts/{manifestId}/replay` | Verify replay |
| GET | `/api/v1/authority/verdicts/{manifestId}/download` | Download signed manifest |

See `docs/09_API_CLI_REFERENCE.md` for complete API documentation.

---

## 9. Examples

### Example 1: High-Confidence Verdict

**Input:**
- Red Hat VEX: `not_affected` with `component_not_present`
- Ubuntu VEX: `not_affected` with `component_not_present`

**Calculation:**
```
Red Hat: BaseTrust=0.78, M=0.80, F=0.95 → ClaimScore=0.59
Ubuntu:  BaseTrust=0.72, M=0.80, F=0.90 → ClaimScore=0.52

No conflict (both agree)
Winner: Red Hat (higher score)
Confidence: 0.59
Gates: All pass (> 0.40 threshold)
```

### Example 2: Conflict Resolution

**Input:**
- Vendor VEX: `not_affected`
- Internal scan: `affected`

**Calculation:**
```
Vendor:   ClaimScore=0.65
Internal: ClaimScore=0.55

Conflict detected → penalty applied
Internal adjusted: 0.55 * 0.75 = 0.41

Winner: Vendor
Confidence: 0.65
Note: Conflict recorded in audit trail
```

---

---

## 10. Implementation Reference

### 10.1 Source Files

| Component | Location |
|-----------|----------|
| TrustVector | `src/Excititor/__Libraries/StellaOps.Excititor.Core/TrustVector/TrustVector.cs` |
| TrustWeights | `src/Excititor/__Libraries/StellaOps.Excititor.Core/TrustVector/TrustWeights.cs` |
| ClaimStrength | `src/Excititor/__Libraries/StellaOps.Excititor.Core/TrustVector/ClaimStrength.cs` |
| FreshnessCalculator | `src/Excititor/__Libraries/StellaOps.Excititor.Core/TrustVector/FreshnessCalculator.cs` |
| DefaultTrustVectors | `src/Excititor/__Libraries/StellaOps.Excititor.Core/TrustVector/DefaultTrustVectors.cs` |
| ProvenanceScorer | `src/Excititor/__Libraries/StellaOps.Excititor.Core/TrustVector/ProvenanceScorer.cs` |
| CoverageScorer | `src/Excititor/__Libraries/StellaOps.Excititor.Core/TrustVector/CoverageScorer.cs` |
| ReplayabilityScorer | `src/Excititor/__Libraries/StellaOps.Excititor.Core/TrustVector/ReplayabilityScorer.cs` |
| SourceClassificationService | `src/Excititor/__Libraries/StellaOps.Excititor.Core/TrustVector/SourceClassificationService.cs` |
| ClaimScoreMerger | `src/Policy/__Libraries/StellaOps.Policy/TrustLattice/ClaimScoreMerger.cs` |
| MinimumConfidenceGate | `src/Policy/__Libraries/StellaOps.Policy/Gates/MinimumConfidenceGate.cs` |
| UnknownsBudgetGate | `src/Policy/__Libraries/StellaOps.Policy/Gates/UnknownsBudgetGate.cs` |
| SourceQuotaGate | `src/Policy/__Libraries/StellaOps.Policy/Gates/SourceQuotaGate.cs` |
| ReachabilityRequirementGate | `src/Policy/__Libraries/StellaOps.Policy/Gates/ReachabilityRequirementGate.cs` |
| TrustVectorCalibrator | `src/Excititor/__Libraries/StellaOps.Excititor.Core/Calibration/TrustVectorCalibrator.cs` |

### 10.2 Configuration Files

| File | Purpose |
|------|---------|
| `etc/trust-lattice.yaml.sample` | Trust vector weights, freshness parameters, default vectors |
| `etc/policy-gates.yaml.sample` | Gate thresholds and enable/disable flags |
| `etc/excititor-calibration.yaml.sample` | Calibration learning parameters |

### 10.3 Database Schema

- **Calibration manifests**: `src/Excititor/__Libraries/StellaOps.Excititor.Storage.Postgres/Migrations/002_calibration_schema.sql`
- **Verdict storage**: See Authority module for verdict manifest persistence

### 10.4 Test Coverage

| Test Suite | Location |
|------------|----------|
| TrustVector tests | `src/Excititor/__Tests/StellaOps.Excititor.Core.Tests/TrustVector/` |
| ClaimScoreMerger tests | `src/Policy/__Tests/StellaOps.Policy.Tests/TrustLattice/` |
| Gate tests | `src/Policy/__Tests/StellaOps.Policy.Tests/Gates/` |
| Calibration tests | `src/Excititor/__Tests/StellaOps.Excititor.Core.Tests/Calibration/` |

---

## Related Documentation

- [Excititor Architecture](./architecture.md)
- [Verdict Manifest Specification](../authority/verdict-manifest.md)
- [Policy Gates Configuration](../policy/architecture.md)
- [API Reference](../../09_API_CLI_REFERENCE.md)

---

*Document Version: 1.0.0*
*Sprint: 7100.0003.0002*
*Created: 2025-12-22*