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This commit is contained in:
StellaOps Bot
@@ -0,0 +1,140 @@
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using System.Text.Json.Serialization;
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using StellaOps.Policy.RiskProfile.Models;
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namespace StellaOps.Policy.Engine.Simulation;
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/// <summary>
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/// Request to run a risk simulation.
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/// </summary>
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public sealed record RiskSimulationRequest(
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[property: JsonPropertyName("profile_id")] string ProfileId,
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[property: JsonPropertyName("profile_version")] string? ProfileVersion,
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[property: JsonPropertyName("findings")] IReadOnlyList<SimulationFinding> Findings,
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[property: JsonPropertyName("include_contributions")] bool IncludeContributions = true,
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[property: JsonPropertyName("include_distribution")] bool IncludeDistribution = true,
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[property: JsonPropertyName("simulation_mode")] SimulationMode Mode = SimulationMode.Full);
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/// <summary>
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/// A finding to include in the simulation.
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/// </summary>
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public sealed record SimulationFinding(
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[property: JsonPropertyName("finding_id")] string FindingId,
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[property: JsonPropertyName("component_purl")] string? ComponentPurl,
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[property: JsonPropertyName("advisory_id")] string? AdvisoryId,
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[property: JsonPropertyName("signals")] Dictionary<string, object?> Signals);
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/// <summary>
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/// Simulation mode.
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/// </summary>
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[JsonConverter(typeof(JsonStringEnumConverter<SimulationMode>))]
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public enum SimulationMode
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{
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/// <summary>
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/// Run full simulation with all computations.
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/// </summary>
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[JsonPropertyName("full")]
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Full,
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/// <summary>
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/// Quick estimation without detailed breakdowns.
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/// </summary>
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[JsonPropertyName("quick")]
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Quick,
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/// <summary>
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/// What-if analysis with hypothetical changes.
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/// </summary>
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[JsonPropertyName("whatif")]
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WhatIf
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}
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/// <summary>
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/// Result of a risk simulation.
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/// </summary>
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public sealed record RiskSimulationResult(
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[property: JsonPropertyName("simulation_id")] string SimulationId,
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[property: JsonPropertyName("profile_id")] string ProfileId,
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[property: JsonPropertyName("profile_version")] string ProfileVersion,
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[property: JsonPropertyName("profile_hash")] string ProfileHash,
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[property: JsonPropertyName("timestamp")] DateTimeOffset Timestamp,
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[property: JsonPropertyName("finding_scores")] IReadOnlyList<FindingScore> FindingScores,
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[property: JsonPropertyName("distribution")] RiskDistribution? Distribution,
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[property: JsonPropertyName("top_movers")] IReadOnlyList<TopMover>? TopMovers,
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[property: JsonPropertyName("aggregate_metrics")] AggregateRiskMetrics AggregateMetrics,
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[property: JsonPropertyName("execution_time_ms")] double ExecutionTimeMs);
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/// <summary>
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/// Computed risk score for a finding.
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/// </summary>
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public sealed record FindingScore(
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[property: JsonPropertyName("finding_id")] string FindingId,
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[property: JsonPropertyName("raw_score")] double RawScore,
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[property: JsonPropertyName("normalized_score")] double NormalizedScore,
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[property: JsonPropertyName("severity")] RiskSeverity Severity,
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[property: JsonPropertyName("action")] RiskAction RecommendedAction,
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[property: JsonPropertyName("contributions")] IReadOnlyList<SignalContribution>? Contributions,
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[property: JsonPropertyName("overrides_applied")] IReadOnlyList<AppliedOverride>? OverridesApplied);
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/// <summary>
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/// Contribution of a signal to the risk score.
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/// </summary>
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public sealed record SignalContribution(
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[property: JsonPropertyName("signal_name")] string SignalName,
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[property: JsonPropertyName("signal_value")] object? SignalValue,
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[property: JsonPropertyName("weight")] double Weight,
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[property: JsonPropertyName("contribution")] double Contribution,
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[property: JsonPropertyName("contribution_percentage")] double ContributionPercentage);
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/// <summary>
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/// An override that was applied during scoring.
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/// </summary>
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public sealed record AppliedOverride(
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[property: JsonPropertyName("override_type")] string OverrideType,
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[property: JsonPropertyName("predicate")] Dictionary<string, object> Predicate,
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[property: JsonPropertyName("original_value")] object? OriginalValue,
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[property: JsonPropertyName("applied_value")] object? AppliedValue,
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[property: JsonPropertyName("reason")] string? Reason);
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/// <summary>
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/// Distribution of risk scores across findings.
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/// </summary>
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public sealed record RiskDistribution(
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[property: JsonPropertyName("buckets")] IReadOnlyList<RiskBucket> Buckets,
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[property: JsonPropertyName("percentiles")] Dictionary<string, double> Percentiles,
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[property: JsonPropertyName("severity_breakdown")] Dictionary<string, int> SeverityBreakdown);
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/// <summary>
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/// A bucket in the risk distribution.
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/// </summary>
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public sealed record RiskBucket(
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[property: JsonPropertyName("range_min")] double RangeMin,
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[property: JsonPropertyName("range_max")] double RangeMax,
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[property: JsonPropertyName("count")] int Count,
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[property: JsonPropertyName("percentage")] double Percentage);
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/// <summary>
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/// A top mover in risk scoring (highest impact findings).
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/// </summary>
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public sealed record TopMover(
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[property: JsonPropertyName("finding_id")] string FindingId,
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[property: JsonPropertyName("component_purl")] string? ComponentPurl,
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[property: JsonPropertyName("score")] double Score,
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[property: JsonPropertyName("severity")] RiskSeverity Severity,
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[property: JsonPropertyName("primary_driver")] string PrimaryDriver,
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[property: JsonPropertyName("driver_contribution")] double DriverContribution);
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/// <summary>
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/// Aggregate risk metrics across all findings.
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/// </summary>
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public sealed record AggregateRiskMetrics(
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[property: JsonPropertyName("total_findings")] int TotalFindings,
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[property: JsonPropertyName("mean_score")] double MeanScore,
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[property: JsonPropertyName("median_score")] double MedianScore,
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[property: JsonPropertyName("std_deviation")] double StdDeviation,
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[property: JsonPropertyName("max_score")] double MaxScore,
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[property: JsonPropertyName("min_score")] double MinScore,
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[property: JsonPropertyName("critical_count")] int CriticalCount,
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[property: JsonPropertyName("high_count")] int HighCount,
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[property: JsonPropertyName("medium_count")] int MediumCount,
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[property: JsonPropertyName("low_count")] int LowCount,
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[property: JsonPropertyName("informational_count")] int InformationalCount);
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@@ -0,0 +1,461 @@
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using System.Diagnostics;
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using System.Security.Cryptography;
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using System.Text;
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using System.Text.Json;
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using Microsoft.Extensions.Logging;
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using StellaOps.Policy.Engine.Services;
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using StellaOps.Policy.Engine.Telemetry;
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using StellaOps.Policy.RiskProfile.Hashing;
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using StellaOps.Policy.RiskProfile.Models;
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namespace StellaOps.Policy.Engine.Simulation;
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/// <summary>
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/// Service for running risk simulations with score distributions and contribution breakdowns.
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/// </summary>
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public sealed class RiskSimulationService
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{
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private readonly ILogger<RiskSimulationService> _logger;
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private readonly TimeProvider _timeProvider;
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private readonly RiskProfileConfigurationService _profileService;
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private readonly RiskProfileHasher _hasher;
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private static readonly double[] PercentileLevels = { 0.25, 0.50, 0.75, 0.90, 0.95, 0.99 };
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private const int TopMoverCount = 10;
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private const int BucketCount = 10;
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public RiskSimulationService(
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ILogger<RiskSimulationService> logger,
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TimeProvider timeProvider,
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RiskProfileConfigurationService profileService)
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{
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_logger = logger ?? throw new ArgumentNullException(nameof(logger));
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_timeProvider = timeProvider ?? throw new ArgumentNullException(nameof(timeProvider));
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_profileService = profileService ?? throw new ArgumentNullException(nameof(profileService));
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_hasher = new RiskProfileHasher();
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}
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/// <summary>
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/// Runs a risk simulation.
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/// </summary>
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public RiskSimulationResult Simulate(RiskSimulationRequest request)
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{
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ArgumentNullException.ThrowIfNull(request);
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using var activity = PolicyEngineTelemetry.ActivitySource.StartActivity("risk_simulation.run");
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activity?.SetTag("profile.id", request.ProfileId);
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activity?.SetTag("finding.count", request.Findings.Count);
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var sw = Stopwatch.StartNew();
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var profile = _profileService.GetProfile(request.ProfileId);
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if (profile == null)
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{
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throw new InvalidOperationException($"Risk profile '{request.ProfileId}' not found.");
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}
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var profileHash = _hasher.ComputeHash(profile);
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var simulationId = GenerateSimulationId(request, profileHash);
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var findingScores = request.Findings
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.Select(f => ComputeFindingScore(f, profile, request.IncludeContributions))
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.ToList();
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var distribution = request.IncludeDistribution
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? ComputeDistribution(findingScores)
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: null;
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var topMovers = request.IncludeContributions
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? ComputeTopMovers(findingScores, request.Findings)
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: null;
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var aggregateMetrics = ComputeAggregateMetrics(findingScores);
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sw.Stop();
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_logger.LogInformation(
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"Risk simulation {SimulationId} completed for {FindingCount} findings in {ElapsedMs}ms",
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simulationId, request.Findings.Count, sw.Elapsed.TotalMilliseconds);
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PolicyEngineTelemetry.RiskSimulationsRun.Add(1);
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return new RiskSimulationResult(
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SimulationId: simulationId,
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ProfileId: profile.Id,
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ProfileVersion: profile.Version,
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ProfileHash: profileHash,
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Timestamp: _timeProvider.GetUtcNow(),
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FindingScores: findingScores.AsReadOnly(),
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Distribution: distribution,
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TopMovers: topMovers,
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AggregateMetrics: aggregateMetrics,
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ExecutionTimeMs: sw.Elapsed.TotalMilliseconds);
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}
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private FindingScore ComputeFindingScore(
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SimulationFinding finding,
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RiskProfileModel profile,
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bool includeContributions)
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{
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var contributions = new List<SignalContribution>();
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var overridesApplied = new List<AppliedOverride>();
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var rawScore = 0.0;
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// Compute score from signals and weights
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foreach (var signal in profile.Signals)
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{
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if (!finding.Signals.TryGetValue(signal.Name, out var signalValue))
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{
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continue;
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}
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var numericValue = ConvertToNumeric(signalValue, signal.Type);
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var weight = profile.Weights.GetValueOrDefault(signal.Name, 0.0);
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var contribution = numericValue * weight;
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rawScore += contribution;
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if (includeContributions)
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{
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contributions.Add(new SignalContribution(
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SignalName: signal.Name,
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SignalValue: signalValue,
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Weight: weight,
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Contribution: contribution,
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ContributionPercentage: 0.0)); // Will be computed after total
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}
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}
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// Normalize score to 0-100 range
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var normalizedScore = Math.Clamp(rawScore * 10, 0, 100);
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// Apply severity overrides
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var severity = DetermineSeverity(normalizedScore);
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foreach (var severityOverride in profile.Overrides.Severity)
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{
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if (MatchesPredicate(finding.Signals, severityOverride.When))
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{
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var originalSeverity = severity;
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severity = severityOverride.Set;
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if (includeContributions)
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{
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overridesApplied.Add(new AppliedOverride(
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OverrideType: "severity",
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Predicate: severityOverride.When,
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OriginalValue: originalSeverity.ToString(),
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AppliedValue: severity.ToString(),
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Reason: null));
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}
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break;
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}
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}
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// Apply decision overrides
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var recommendedAction = DetermineAction(severity);
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foreach (var decisionOverride in profile.Overrides.Decisions)
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{
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if (MatchesPredicate(finding.Signals, decisionOverride.When))
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{
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var originalAction = recommendedAction;
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recommendedAction = decisionOverride.Action;
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if (includeContributions)
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{
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overridesApplied.Add(new AppliedOverride(
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OverrideType: "decision",
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Predicate: decisionOverride.When,
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OriginalValue: originalAction.ToString(),
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AppliedValue: recommendedAction.ToString(),
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Reason: decisionOverride.Reason));
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}
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break;
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}
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}
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// Update contribution percentages
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if (includeContributions && rawScore > 0)
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{
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contributions = contributions
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.Select(c => c with { ContributionPercentage = (c.Contribution / rawScore) * 100 })
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.ToList();
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}
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return new FindingScore(
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FindingId: finding.FindingId,
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RawScore: rawScore,
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NormalizedScore: normalizedScore,
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Severity: severity,
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RecommendedAction: recommendedAction,
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Contributions: includeContributions ? contributions.AsReadOnly() : null,
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OverridesApplied: includeContributions && overridesApplied.Count > 0
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? overridesApplied.AsReadOnly()
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: null);
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}
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private static double ConvertToNumeric(object? value, RiskSignalType signalType)
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{
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if (value == null)
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{
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return 0.0;
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}
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return signalType switch
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{
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RiskSignalType.Boolean => value switch
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{
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bool b => b ? 1.0 : 0.0,
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JsonElement je when je.ValueKind == JsonValueKind.True => 1.0,
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JsonElement je when je.ValueKind == JsonValueKind.False => 0.0,
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string s when bool.TryParse(s, out var b) => b ? 1.0 : 0.0,
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_ => 0.0
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},
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RiskSignalType.Numeric => value switch
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{
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double d => d,
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float f => f,
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int i => i,
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long l => l,
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decimal dec => (double)dec,
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JsonElement je when je.TryGetDouble(out var d) => d,
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string s when double.TryParse(s, out var d) => d,
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_ => 0.0
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},
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RiskSignalType.Categorical => value switch
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{
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string s => MapCategoricalToNumeric(s),
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JsonElement je when je.ValueKind == JsonValueKind.String => MapCategoricalToNumeric(je.GetString() ?? ""),
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_ => 0.0
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},
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_ => 0.0
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};
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}
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private static double MapCategoricalToNumeric(string category)
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{
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return category.ToLowerInvariant() switch
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{
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"none" or "unknown" => 0.0,
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"indirect" or "low" => 0.3,
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"direct" or "medium" => 0.6,
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"high" or "critical" => 1.0,
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_ => 0.5
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};
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}
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private static RiskSeverity DetermineSeverity(double score)
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{
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return score switch
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{
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>= 90 => RiskSeverity.Critical,
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>= 70 => RiskSeverity.High,
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>= 40 => RiskSeverity.Medium,
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>= 10 => RiskSeverity.Low,
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_ => RiskSeverity.Informational
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};
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}
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private static RiskAction DetermineAction(RiskSeverity severity)
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{
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return severity switch
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{
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RiskSeverity.Critical => RiskAction.Deny,
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RiskSeverity.High => RiskAction.Deny,
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RiskSeverity.Medium => RiskAction.Review,
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_ => RiskAction.Allow
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};
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}
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private static bool MatchesPredicate(Dictionary<string, object?> signals, Dictionary<string, object> predicate)
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{
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foreach (var (key, expected) in predicate)
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{
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if (!signals.TryGetValue(key, out var actual))
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{
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return false;
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}
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if (!ValuesEqual(actual, expected))
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{
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return false;
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}
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}
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return true;
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}
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private static bool ValuesEqual(object? a, object? b)
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{
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if (a == null && b == null) return true;
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if (a == null || b == null) return false;
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// Handle JsonElement comparisons
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if (a is JsonElement jeA && b is JsonElement jeB)
|
||||
{
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return jeA.GetRawText() == jeB.GetRawText();
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||||
}
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||||
|
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if (a is JsonElement je)
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{
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a = je.ValueKind switch
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{
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JsonValueKind.String => je.GetString(),
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JsonValueKind.Number => je.GetDouble(),
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JsonValueKind.True => true,
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JsonValueKind.False => false,
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_ => je.GetRawText()
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};
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}
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if (b is JsonElement jeb)
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{
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b = jeb.ValueKind switch
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||||
{
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JsonValueKind.String => jeb.GetString(),
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JsonValueKind.Number => jeb.GetDouble(),
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JsonValueKind.True => true,
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JsonValueKind.False => false,
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||||
_ => jeb.GetRawText()
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||||
};
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||||
}
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return Equals(a, b);
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}
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private static RiskDistribution ComputeDistribution(List<FindingScore> scores)
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{
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if (scores.Count == 0)
|
||||
{
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return new RiskDistribution(
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Buckets: Array.Empty<RiskBucket>(),
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||||
Percentiles: new Dictionary<string, double>(),
|
||||
SeverityBreakdown: new Dictionary<string, int>
|
||||
{
|
||||
["critical"] = 0,
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||||
["high"] = 0,
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||||
["medium"] = 0,
|
||||
["low"] = 0,
|
||||
["informational"] = 0
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||||
});
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||||
}
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||||
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||||
var normalizedScores = scores.Select(s => s.NormalizedScore).OrderBy(x => x).ToList();
|
||||
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||||
// Compute buckets
|
||||
var buckets = new List<RiskBucket>();
|
||||
var bucketSize = 100.0 / BucketCount;
|
||||
for (var i = 0; i < BucketCount; i++)
|
||||
{
|
||||
var rangeMin = i * bucketSize;
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||||
var rangeMax = (i + 1) * bucketSize;
|
||||
var count = normalizedScores.Count(s => s >= rangeMin && s < rangeMax);
|
||||
buckets.Add(new RiskBucket(
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||||
RangeMin: rangeMin,
|
||||
RangeMax: rangeMax,
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||||
Count: count,
|
||||
Percentage: (double)count / scores.Count * 100));
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
// Compute percentiles
|
||||
var percentiles = new Dictionary<string, double>();
|
||||
foreach (var level in PercentileLevels)
|
||||
{
|
||||
var index = (int)(level * (normalizedScores.Count - 1));
|
||||
percentiles[$"p{(int)(level * 100)}"] = normalizedScores[index];
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
// Severity breakdown
|
||||
var severityBreakdown = scores
|
||||
.GroupBy(s => s.Severity.ToString().ToLowerInvariant())
|
||||
.ToDictionary(g => g.Key, g => g.Count());
|
||||
|
||||
// Ensure all severities are present
|
||||
foreach (var sev in new[] { "critical", "high", "medium", "low", "informational" })
|
||||
{
|
||||
severityBreakdown.TryAdd(sev, 0);
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
return new RiskDistribution(
|
||||
Buckets: buckets.AsReadOnly(),
|
||||
Percentiles: percentiles,
|
||||
SeverityBreakdown: severityBreakdown);
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
private static IReadOnlyList<TopMover> ComputeTopMovers(
|
||||
List<FindingScore> scores,
|
||||
IReadOnlyList<SimulationFinding> findings)
|
||||
{
|
||||
var findingLookup = findings.ToDictionary(f => f.FindingId, StringComparer.OrdinalIgnoreCase);
|
||||
|
||||
return scores
|
||||
.OrderByDescending(s => s.NormalizedScore)
|
||||
.Take(TopMoverCount)
|
||||
.Select(s =>
|
||||
{
|
||||
var finding = findingLookup.GetValueOrDefault(s.FindingId);
|
||||
var primaryContribution = s.Contributions?
|
||||
.OrderByDescending(c => c.ContributionPercentage)
|
||||
.FirstOrDefault();
|
||||
|
||||
return new TopMover(
|
||||
FindingId: s.FindingId,
|
||||
ComponentPurl: finding?.ComponentPurl,
|
||||
Score: s.NormalizedScore,
|
||||
Severity: s.Severity,
|
||||
PrimaryDriver: primaryContribution?.SignalName ?? "unknown",
|
||||
DriverContribution: primaryContribution?.ContributionPercentage ?? 0);
|
||||
})
|
||||
.ToList()
|
||||
.AsReadOnly();
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
private static AggregateRiskMetrics ComputeAggregateMetrics(List<FindingScore> scores)
|
||||
{
|
||||
if (scores.Count == 0)
|
||||
{
|
||||
return new AggregateRiskMetrics(
|
||||
TotalFindings: 0,
|
||||
MeanScore: 0,
|
||||
MedianScore: 0,
|
||||
StdDeviation: 0,
|
||||
MaxScore: 0,
|
||||
MinScore: 0,
|
||||
CriticalCount: 0,
|
||||
HighCount: 0,
|
||||
MediumCount: 0,
|
||||
LowCount: 0,
|
||||
InformationalCount: 0);
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
var normalizedScores = scores.Select(s => s.NormalizedScore).ToList();
|
||||
var mean = normalizedScores.Average();
|
||||
var sortedScores = normalizedScores.OrderBy(x => x).ToList();
|
||||
var median = sortedScores.Count % 2 == 0
|
||||
? (sortedScores[sortedScores.Count / 2 - 1] + sortedScores[sortedScores.Count / 2]) / 2
|
||||
: sortedScores[sortedScores.Count / 2];
|
||||
|
||||
var variance = normalizedScores.Average(s => Math.Pow(s - mean, 2));
|
||||
var stdDev = Math.Sqrt(variance);
|
||||
|
||||
return new AggregateRiskMetrics(
|
||||
TotalFindings: scores.Count,
|
||||
MeanScore: Math.Round(mean, 2),
|
||||
MedianScore: Math.Round(median, 2),
|
||||
StdDeviation: Math.Round(stdDev, 2),
|
||||
MaxScore: normalizedScores.Max(),
|
||||
MinScore: normalizedScores.Min(),
|
||||
CriticalCount: scores.Count(s => s.Severity == RiskSeverity.Critical),
|
||||
HighCount: scores.Count(s => s.Severity == RiskSeverity.High),
|
||||
MediumCount: scores.Count(s => s.Severity == RiskSeverity.Medium),
|
||||
LowCount: scores.Count(s => s.Severity == RiskSeverity.Low),
|
||||
InformationalCount: scores.Count(s => s.Severity == RiskSeverity.Informational));
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
private static string GenerateSimulationId(RiskSimulationRequest request, string profileHash)
|
||||
{
|
||||
var seed = $"{request.ProfileId}|{profileHash}|{request.Findings.Count}|{Guid.NewGuid()}";
|
||||
var hash = SHA256.HashData(Encoding.UTF8.GetBytes(seed));
|
||||
return $"rsim-{Convert.ToHexStringLower(hash)[..16]}";
|
||||
}
|
||||
}
|
||||
Reference in New Issue
Block a user