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2026-01-07 10:25:34 +02:00
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@@ -118,10 +118,61 @@ Key notes:
| **API** (`Api/`) | Minimal API endpoints, DTO validation, problem responses, idempotency. | Generated clients for CLI/UI. |
| **Observability** (`Telemetry/`) | Metrics (`policy_run_seconds`, `rules_fired_total`), traces, structured logs. | Sampled rule-hit logs with redaction. |
| **Offline Adapter** (`Offline/`) | Bundle export/import (policies, simulations, runs), sealed-mode enforcement. | Uses DSSE signing via Signer service; bundles include IR hash, input cursors, shadow flag, coverage artefacts. |
| **VEX Decision Emitter** (`Vex/Emitter/`) | Build OpenVEX statements, attach reachability evidence hashes, request DSSE signing, and persist artifacts for Export Center / bench repo. | New (Sprint401); integrates with Signer predicate `stella.ops/vexDecision@v1` and Attestor Rekor logging. |
| **VEX Decision Emitter** (`Vex/Emitter/`) | Build OpenVEX statements, attach reachability evidence hashes, request DSSE signing, and persist artifacts for Export Center / bench repo. | New (Sprint401); integrates with Signer predicate `stella.ops/vexDecision@v1` and Attestor Rekor logging. || **Determinization** (`Policy.Determinization/`) | Scores uncertainty/trust based on signal completeness and age; calculates entropy (0.0 = complete, 1.0 = no knowledge), confidence decay (exponential half-life), and aggregated trust scores; emits metrics for uncertainty/decay/trust; supports VEX-trust integration. | Library consumed by Signals and VEX subsystems; configuration via `Determinization` section. |
---
### 3.1 · Determinization Configuration
The Determinization subsystem calculates uncertainty scores based on signal completeness (entropy), confidence decay based on observation age (exponential half-life), and aggregated trust scores. Configuration options in `appsettings.json` under `Determinization`:
```json
{
"Determinization": {
"SignalWeights": {
"VexWeight": 0.35,
"EpssWeight": 0.10,
"ReachabilityWeight": 0.25,
"RuntimeWeight": 0.15,
"BackportWeight": 0.10,
"SbomLineageWeight": 0.05
},
"PriorDistribution": "Conservative",
"ConfidenceHalfLifeDays": 14.0,
"ConfidenceFloor": 0.1,
"ManualReviewEntropyThreshold": 0.60,
"RefreshEntropyThreshold": 0.40,
"StaleObservationDays": 30.0,
"EnableDetailedLogging": false,
"EnableAutoRefresh": true,
"MaxSignalQueryRetries": 3
}
}
```
| Option | Type | Default | Description |
|--------|------|---------|-------------|
| `SignalWeights` | Object | See above | Relative weights for each signal type in entropy calculation. Weights are normalized to sum to 1.0. VEX carries highest weight (0.35), followed by Reachability (0.25), Runtime (0.15), EPSS/Backport (0.10 each), and SBOM lineage (0.05). |
| `PriorDistribution` | Enum | `Conservative` | Prior distribution for missing signals. Options: `Conservative` (pessimistic), `Neutral`, `Optimistic`. Affects uncertainty tier classification when signals are unavailable. |
| `ConfidenceHalfLifeDays` | Double | `14.0` | Half-life period for confidence decay in days. Confidence decays exponentially: `exp(-ln(2) * age_days / half_life_days)`. |
| `ConfidenceFloor` | Double | `0.1` | Minimum confidence value after decay (0.0-1.0). Prevents confidence from decaying to zero, maintaining baseline trust even for very old observations. |
| `ManualReviewEntropyThreshold` | Double | `0.60` | Entropy threshold for triggering manual review (0.0-1.0). Findings with entropy ≥ this value require human intervention due to insufficient signal coverage. |
| `RefreshEntropyThreshold` | Double | `0.40` | Entropy threshold for triggering signal refresh (0.0-1.0). Findings with entropy ≥ this value should attempt to gather more signals before verdict. |
| `StaleObservationDays` | Double | `30.0` | Maximum age before an observation is considered stale (days). Used in conjunction with decay calculations and auto-refresh triggers. |
| `EnableDetailedLogging` | Boolean | `false` | Enable verbose logging for entropy/decay/trust calculations. Useful for debugging but increases log volume significantly. |
| `EnableAutoRefresh` | Boolean | `true` | Automatically trigger signal refresh when entropy exceeds `RefreshEntropyThreshold`. Requires integration with signal providers. |
| `MaxSignalQueryRetries` | Integer | `3` | Maximum retry attempts for failed signal provider queries before marking signal as unavailable. |
**Metrics emitted:**
- `stellaops_determinization_uncertainty_entropy` (histogram, unit: ratio): Uncertainty entropy score per CVE/PURL pair. Tags: `cve`, `purl`.
- `stellaops_determinization_decay_multiplier` (histogram, unit: ratio): Confidence decay multiplier based on observation age. Tags: `half_life_days`, `age_days`.
**Usage in policies:**
Determinization scores are exposed to SPL policies via the `signals.trust.*` and `signals.uncertainty.*` namespaces. Use `signals.uncertainty.entropy` to access entropy values and `signals.trust.score` for aggregated trust scores that combine VEX, reachability, runtime, and other signals with decay/weighting.
---
## 4·Data Model & Persistence
### 4.1 Collections

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# Policy Determinization Architecture
## Overview
The **Determinization** subsystem handles CVEs that arrive without complete evidence (EPSS, VEX, reachability). Rather than blocking pipelines or silently ignoring unknowns, it treats them as **probabilistic observations** that can mature as evidence arrives.
**Design Principles:**
1. **Uncertainty is first-class** - Missing signals contribute to entropy, not guesswork
2. **Graceful degradation** - Pipelines continue with guardrails, not hard blocks
3. **Automatic hardening** - Policies tighten as evidence accumulates
4. **Full auditability** - Every decision traces back to evidence state
## Problem Statement
When a CVE is discovered against a component, several scenarios create uncertainty:
| Scenario | Current Behavior | Desired Behavior |
|----------|------------------|------------------|
| EPSS not yet published | Treat as unknown severity | Explicit `SignalState.NotQueried` with default prior |
| VEX statement missing | Assume affected | Explicit uncertainty with configurable policy |
| Reachability indeterminate | Conservative block | Allow with guardrails in non-prod |
| Conflicting VEX sources | K4 Conflict state | Entropy penalty + human review trigger |
| Stale evidence (>14 days) | No special handling | Decay-adjusted confidence + auto-review |
## Architecture
### Component Diagram
```
+------------------------+
| Policy Engine |
| (Verdict Evaluation) |
+------------------------+
|
v
+----------------+ +-------------------+ +------------------------+
| Feedser |--->| Signal Aggregator |-->| Determinization Gate |
| (EPSS/VEX/KEV) | | (Null-aware) | | (Entropy Thresholds) |
+----------------+ +-------------------+ +------------------------+
| |
v v
+-------------------+ +-------------------+
| Uncertainty Score | | GuardRails Policy |
| Calculator | | (Allow/Quarantine)|
+-------------------+ +-------------------+
| |
v v
+-------------------+ +-------------------+
| Decay Calculator | | Observation State |
| (Half-life) | | (pending_determ) |
+-------------------+ +-------------------+
```
### Library Structure
```
src/Policy/__Libraries/StellaOps.Policy.Determinization/
├── Models/
│ ├── ObservationState.cs # CVE observation lifecycle states
│ ├── SignalState.cs # Null-aware signal wrapper
│ ├── SignalSnapshot.cs # Point-in-time signal collection
│ ├── UncertaintyScore.cs # Knowledge completeness entropy
│ ├── ObservationDecay.cs # Per-CVE decay configuration
│ ├── GuardRails.cs # Guardrail policy outcomes
│ └── DeterminizationContext.cs # Evaluation context container
├── Scoring/
│ ├── IUncertaintyScoreCalculator.cs
│ ├── UncertaintyScoreCalculator.cs # entropy = 1 - evidence_sum
│ ├── IDecayedConfidenceCalculator.cs
│ ├── DecayedConfidenceCalculator.cs # Half-life decay application
│ ├── SignalWeights.cs # Configurable signal weights
│ └── PriorDistribution.cs # Default priors for missing signals
├── Policies/
│ ├── IDeterminizationPolicy.cs
│ ├── DeterminizationPolicy.cs # Allow/quarantine/escalate rules
│ ├── GuardRailsPolicy.cs # Guardrails configuration
│ ├── DeterminizationRuleSet.cs # Rule definitions
│ └── EnvironmentThresholds.cs # Per-environment thresholds
├── Gates/
│ ├── IDeterminizationGate.cs
│ ├── DeterminizationGate.cs # Policy engine gate
│ └── DeterminizationGateOptions.cs
├── Subscriptions/
│ ├── ISignalUpdateSubscription.cs
│ ├── SignalUpdateHandler.cs # Re-evaluation on new signals
│ └── DeterminizationEventTypes.cs
├── DeterminizationOptions.cs # Global options
└── ServiceCollectionExtensions.cs # DI registration
```
## Data Models
### ObservationState
Represents the lifecycle state of a CVE observation, orthogonal to VEX status:
```csharp
/// <summary>
/// Observation state for CVE tracking, independent of VEX status.
/// Allows a CVE to be "Affected" (VEX) but "PendingDeterminization" (observation).
/// </summary>
public enum ObservationState
{
/// <summary>
/// Initial state: CVE discovered but evidence incomplete.
/// Triggers guardrail-based policy evaluation.
/// </summary>
PendingDeterminization = 0,
/// <summary>
/// Evidence sufficient for confident determination.
/// Normal policy evaluation applies.
/// </summary>
Determined = 1,
/// <summary>
/// Multiple signals conflict (K4 Conflict state).
/// Requires human review regardless of confidence.
/// </summary>
Disputed = 2,
/// <summary>
/// Evidence decayed below threshold; needs refresh.
/// Auto-triggered when decay > threshold.
/// </summary>
StaleRequiresRefresh = 3,
/// <summary>
/// Manually flagged for review.
/// Bypasses automatic determinization.
/// </summary>
ManualReviewRequired = 4,
/// <summary>
/// CVE suppressed/ignored by policy exception.
/// Evidence tracking continues but decisions skip.
/// </summary>
Suppressed = 5
}
```
### SignalState<T>
Null-aware wrapper distinguishing "not queried" from "queried, value null":
```csharp
/// <summary>
/// Wraps a signal value with query status metadata.
/// Distinguishes between: not queried, queried with value, queried but absent, query failed.
/// </summary>
public sealed record SignalState<T>
{
/// <summary>Status of the signal query.</summary>
public required SignalQueryStatus Status { get; init; }
/// <summary>Signal value if Status is Queried and value exists.</summary>
public T? Value { get; init; }
/// <summary>When the signal was last queried (UTC).</summary>
public DateTimeOffset? QueriedAt { get; init; }
/// <summary>Reason for failure if Status is Failed.</summary>
public string? FailureReason { get; init; }
/// <summary>Source that provided the value (feed ID, issuer, etc.).</summary>
public string? Source { get; init; }
/// <summary>Whether this signal contributes to uncertainty (true if not queried or failed).</summary>
public bool ContributesToUncertainty =>
Status is SignalQueryStatus.NotQueried or SignalQueryStatus.Failed;
/// <summary>Whether this signal has a usable value.</summary>
public bool HasValue => Status == SignalQueryStatus.Queried && Value is not null;
}
public enum SignalQueryStatus
{
/// <summary>Signal source not yet queried.</summary>
NotQueried = 0,
/// <summary>Signal source queried; value may be present or absent.</summary>
Queried = 1,
/// <summary>Signal query failed (timeout, network, parse error).</summary>
Failed = 2
}
```
### SignalSnapshot
Point-in-time collection of all signals for a CVE observation:
```csharp
/// <summary>
/// Immutable snapshot of all signals for a CVE observation at a point in time.
/// </summary>
public sealed record SignalSnapshot
{
/// <summary>CVE identifier (e.g., CVE-2026-12345).</summary>
public required string CveId { get; init; }
/// <summary>Subject component (PURL).</summary>
public required string SubjectPurl { get; init; }
/// <summary>Snapshot capture time (UTC).</summary>
public required DateTimeOffset CapturedAt { get; init; }
/// <summary>EPSS score signal.</summary>
public required SignalState<EpssEvidence> Epss { get; init; }
/// <summary>VEX claim signal.</summary>
public required SignalState<VexClaimSummary> Vex { get; init; }
/// <summary>Reachability determination signal.</summary>
public required SignalState<ReachabilityEvidence> Reachability { get; init; }
/// <summary>Runtime observation signal (eBPF, dyld, ETW).</summary>
public required SignalState<RuntimeEvidence> Runtime { get; init; }
/// <summary>Fix backport detection signal.</summary>
public required SignalState<BackportEvidence> Backport { get; init; }
/// <summary>SBOM lineage signal.</summary>
public required SignalState<SbomLineageEvidence> SbomLineage { get; init; }
/// <summary>Known Exploited Vulnerability flag.</summary>
public required SignalState<bool> Kev { get; init; }
/// <summary>CVSS score signal.</summary>
public required SignalState<CvssEvidence> Cvss { get; init; }
}
```
### UncertaintyScore
Knowledge completeness measurement (not code entropy):
```csharp
/// <summary>
/// Measures knowledge completeness for a CVE observation.
/// High entropy (close to 1.0) means many signals are missing.
/// Low entropy (close to 0.0) means comprehensive evidence.
/// </summary>
public sealed record UncertaintyScore
{
/// <summary>Entropy value [0.0-1.0]. Higher = more uncertain.</summary>
public required double Entropy { get; init; }
/// <summary>Completeness value [0.0-1.0]. Higher = more complete. (1 - Entropy)</summary>
public double Completeness => 1.0 - Entropy;
/// <summary>Signals that are missing or failed.</summary>
public required ImmutableArray<SignalGap> MissingSignals { get; init; }
/// <summary>Weighted sum of present signals.</summary>
public required double WeightedEvidenceSum { get; init; }
/// <summary>Maximum possible weighted sum (all signals present).</summary>
public required double MaxPossibleWeight { get; init; }
/// <summary>Tier classification based on entropy.</summary>
public UncertaintyTier Tier => Entropy switch
{
<= 0.2 => UncertaintyTier.VeryLow, // Comprehensive evidence
<= 0.4 => UncertaintyTier.Low, // Good evidence coverage
<= 0.6 => UncertaintyTier.Medium, // Moderate gaps
<= 0.8 => UncertaintyTier.High, // Significant gaps
_ => UncertaintyTier.VeryHigh // Minimal evidence
};
}
public sealed record SignalGap(
string SignalName,
double Weight,
SignalQueryStatus Status,
string? Reason);
public enum UncertaintyTier
{
VeryLow = 0, // Entropy <= 0.2
Low = 1, // Entropy <= 0.4
Medium = 2, // Entropy <= 0.6
High = 3, // Entropy <= 0.8
VeryHigh = 4 // Entropy > 0.8
}
```
### ObservationDecay
Time-based confidence decay configuration:
```csharp
/// <summary>
/// Tracks evidence freshness decay for a CVE observation.
/// </summary>
public sealed record ObservationDecay
{
/// <summary>Half-life for confidence decay. Default: 14 days per advisory.</summary>
public required TimeSpan HalfLife { get; init; }
/// <summary>Minimum confidence floor (never decays below). Default: 0.35.</summary>
public required double Floor { get; init; }
/// <summary>Last time any signal was updated (UTC).</summary>
public required DateTimeOffset LastSignalUpdate { get; init; }
/// <summary>Current decayed confidence multiplier [Floor-1.0].</summary>
public required double DecayedMultiplier { get; init; }
/// <summary>When next auto-review is scheduled (UTC).</summary>
public DateTimeOffset? NextReviewAt { get; init; }
/// <summary>Whether decay has triggered stale state.</summary>
public bool IsStale { get; init; }
}
```
### GuardRails
Policy outcome with monitoring requirements:
```csharp
/// <summary>
/// Guardrails applied when allowing uncertain observations.
/// </summary>
public sealed record GuardRails
{
/// <summary>Enable runtime monitoring for this observation.</summary>
public required bool EnableRuntimeMonitoring { get; init; }
/// <summary>Interval for automatic re-review.</summary>
public required TimeSpan ReviewInterval { get; init; }
/// <summary>EPSS threshold that triggers automatic escalation.</summary>
public required double EpssEscalationThreshold { get; init; }
/// <summary>Reachability status that triggers escalation.</summary>
public required ImmutableArray<string> EscalatingReachabilityStates { get; init; }
/// <summary>Maximum time in guarded state before forced review.</summary>
public required TimeSpan MaxGuardedDuration { get; init; }
/// <summary>Alert channels for this observation.</summary>
public ImmutableArray<string> AlertChannels { get; init; } = ImmutableArray<string>.Empty;
/// <summary>Additional context for audit trail.</summary>
public string? PolicyRationale { get; init; }
}
```
## Scoring Algorithms
### Uncertainty Score Calculation
```csharp
/// <summary>
/// Calculates knowledge completeness entropy from signal snapshot.
/// Formula: entropy = 1 - (sum of weighted present signals / max possible weight)
/// </summary>
public sealed class UncertaintyScoreCalculator : IUncertaintyScoreCalculator
{
private readonly SignalWeights _weights;
public UncertaintyScore Calculate(SignalSnapshot snapshot)
{
var gaps = new List<SignalGap>();
var weightedSum = 0.0;
var maxWeight = _weights.TotalWeight;
// EPSS signal
if (snapshot.Epss.HasValue)
weightedSum += _weights.Epss;
else
gaps.Add(new SignalGap("EPSS", _weights.Epss, snapshot.Epss.Status, snapshot.Epss.FailureReason));
// VEX signal
if (snapshot.Vex.HasValue)
weightedSum += _weights.Vex;
else
gaps.Add(new SignalGap("VEX", _weights.Vex, snapshot.Vex.Status, snapshot.Vex.FailureReason));
// Reachability signal
if (snapshot.Reachability.HasValue)
weightedSum += _weights.Reachability;
else
gaps.Add(new SignalGap("Reachability", _weights.Reachability, snapshot.Reachability.Status, snapshot.Reachability.FailureReason));
// Runtime signal
if (snapshot.Runtime.HasValue)
weightedSum += _weights.Runtime;
else
gaps.Add(new SignalGap("Runtime", _weights.Runtime, snapshot.Runtime.Status, snapshot.Runtime.FailureReason));
// Backport signal
if (snapshot.Backport.HasValue)
weightedSum += _weights.Backport;
else
gaps.Add(new SignalGap("Backport", _weights.Backport, snapshot.Backport.Status, snapshot.Backport.FailureReason));
// SBOM Lineage signal
if (snapshot.SbomLineage.HasValue)
weightedSum += _weights.SbomLineage;
else
gaps.Add(new SignalGap("SBOMLineage", _weights.SbomLineage, snapshot.SbomLineage.Status, snapshot.SbomLineage.FailureReason));
var entropy = 1.0 - (weightedSum / maxWeight);
return new UncertaintyScore
{
Entropy = Math.Clamp(entropy, 0.0, 1.0),
MissingSignals = gaps.ToImmutableArray(),
WeightedEvidenceSum = weightedSum,
MaxPossibleWeight = maxWeight
};
}
}
```
### Signal Weights (Configurable)
```csharp
/// <summary>
/// Configurable weights for signal contribution to completeness.
/// Weights should sum to 1.0 for normalized entropy.
/// </summary>
public sealed record SignalWeights
{
public double Vex { get; init; } = 0.25;
public double Epss { get; init; } = 0.15;
public double Reachability { get; init; } = 0.25;
public double Runtime { get; init; } = 0.15;
public double Backport { get; init; } = 0.10;
public double SbomLineage { get; init; } = 0.10;
public double TotalWeight =>
Vex + Epss + Reachability + Runtime + Backport + SbomLineage;
public SignalWeights Normalize()
{
var total = TotalWeight;
return new SignalWeights
{
Vex = Vex / total,
Epss = Epss / total,
Reachability = Reachability / total,
Runtime = Runtime / total,
Backport = Backport / total,
SbomLineage = SbomLineage / total
};
}
}
```
### Decay Calculation
```csharp
/// <summary>
/// Applies exponential decay to confidence based on evidence staleness.
/// Formula: decayed = max(floor, exp(-ln(2) * age_days / half_life_days))
/// </summary>
public sealed class DecayedConfidenceCalculator : IDecayedConfidenceCalculator
{
private readonly TimeProvider _timeProvider;
public ObservationDecay Calculate(
DateTimeOffset lastSignalUpdate,
TimeSpan halfLife,
double floor = 0.35)
{
var now = _timeProvider.GetUtcNow();
var ageDays = (now - lastSignalUpdate).TotalDays;
double decayedMultiplier;
if (ageDays <= 0)
{
decayedMultiplier = 1.0;
}
else
{
var rawDecay = Math.Exp(-Math.Log(2) * ageDays / halfLife.TotalDays);
decayedMultiplier = Math.Max(rawDecay, floor);
}
// Calculate next review time (when decay crosses 50% threshold)
var daysTo50Percent = halfLife.TotalDays;
var nextReviewAt = lastSignalUpdate.AddDays(daysTo50Percent);
return new ObservationDecay
{
HalfLife = halfLife,
Floor = floor,
LastSignalUpdate = lastSignalUpdate,
DecayedMultiplier = decayedMultiplier,
NextReviewAt = nextReviewAt,
IsStale = decayedMultiplier <= 0.5
};
}
}
```
## Policy Rules
### Determinization Policy
```csharp
/// <summary>
/// Implements allow/quarantine/escalate logic per advisory specification.
/// </summary>
public sealed class DeterminizationPolicy : IDeterminizationPolicy
{
private readonly DeterminizationOptions _options;
private readonly ILogger<DeterminizationPolicy> _logger;
public DeterminizationResult Evaluate(DeterminizationContext ctx)
{
var snapshot = ctx.SignalSnapshot;
var uncertainty = ctx.UncertaintyScore;
var decay = ctx.Decay;
var env = ctx.Environment;
// Rule 1: Escalate if runtime evidence shows loaded
if (snapshot.Runtime.HasValue &&
snapshot.Runtime.Value!.ObservedLoaded)
{
return DeterminizationResult.Escalated(
"Runtime evidence shows vulnerable code loaded",
PolicyVerdictStatus.Escalated);
}
// Rule 2: Quarantine if EPSS >= threshold or proven reachable
if (snapshot.Epss.HasValue &&
snapshot.Epss.Value!.Score >= _options.EpssQuarantineThreshold)
{
return DeterminizationResult.Quarantined(
$"EPSS score {snapshot.Epss.Value.Score:P1} exceeds threshold {_options.EpssQuarantineThreshold:P1}",
PolicyVerdictStatus.Blocked);
}
if (snapshot.Reachability.HasValue &&
snapshot.Reachability.Value!.Status == ReachabilityStatus.Reachable)
{
return DeterminizationResult.Quarantined(
"Vulnerable code is reachable via call graph",
PolicyVerdictStatus.Blocked);
}
// Rule 3: Allow with guardrails if score < threshold AND entropy > threshold AND non-prod
var trustScore = ctx.TrustScore;
if (trustScore < _options.GuardedAllowScoreThreshold &&
uncertainty.Entropy > _options.GuardedAllowEntropyThreshold &&
env != DeploymentEnvironment.Production)
{
var guardrails = BuildGuardrails(ctx);
return DeterminizationResult.GuardedAllow(
$"Uncertain observation (entropy={uncertainty.Entropy:F2}) allowed with guardrails in {env}",
PolicyVerdictStatus.GuardedPass,
guardrails);
}
// Rule 4: Block in production with high entropy
if (env == DeploymentEnvironment.Production &&
uncertainty.Entropy > _options.ProductionBlockEntropyThreshold)
{
return DeterminizationResult.Quarantined(
$"High uncertainty (entropy={uncertainty.Entropy:F2}) not allowed in production",
PolicyVerdictStatus.Blocked);
}
// Rule 5: Defer if evidence is stale
if (decay.IsStale)
{
return DeterminizationResult.Deferred(
$"Evidence stale (last update: {decay.LastSignalUpdate:u}), requires refresh",
PolicyVerdictStatus.Deferred);
}
// Default: Allow (sufficient evidence or acceptable risk)
return DeterminizationResult.Allowed(
"Evidence sufficient for determination",
PolicyVerdictStatus.Pass);
}
private GuardRails BuildGuardrails(DeterminizationContext ctx) =>
new GuardRails
{
EnableRuntimeMonitoring = true,
ReviewInterval = TimeSpan.FromDays(_options.GuardedReviewIntervalDays),
EpssEscalationThreshold = _options.EpssQuarantineThreshold,
EscalatingReachabilityStates = ImmutableArray.Create("Reachable", "ObservedReachable"),
MaxGuardedDuration = TimeSpan.FromDays(_options.MaxGuardedDurationDays),
PolicyRationale = $"Auto-allowed with entropy={ctx.UncertaintyScore.Entropy:F2}, trust={ctx.TrustScore:F2}"
};
}
```
### Environment Thresholds
```csharp
/// <summary>
/// Per-environment threshold configuration.
/// </summary>
public sealed record EnvironmentThresholds
{
public DeploymentEnvironment Environment { get; init; }
public double MinConfidenceForNotAffected { get; init; }
public double MaxEntropyForAllow { get; init; }
public double EpssBlockThreshold { get; init; }
public bool RequireReachabilityForAllow { get; init; }
}
public static class DefaultEnvironmentThresholds
{
public static EnvironmentThresholds Production => new()
{
Environment = DeploymentEnvironment.Production,
MinConfidenceForNotAffected = 0.75,
MaxEntropyForAllow = 0.3,
EpssBlockThreshold = 0.3,
RequireReachabilityForAllow = true
};
public static EnvironmentThresholds Staging => new()
{
Environment = DeploymentEnvironment.Staging,
MinConfidenceForNotAffected = 0.60,
MaxEntropyForAllow = 0.5,
EpssBlockThreshold = 0.4,
RequireReachabilityForAllow = true
};
public static EnvironmentThresholds Development => new()
{
Environment = DeploymentEnvironment.Development,
MinConfidenceForNotAffected = 0.40,
MaxEntropyForAllow = 0.7,
EpssBlockThreshold = 0.6,
RequireReachabilityForAllow = false
};
}
```
## Integration Points
### Feedser Integration
Feedser attaches `SignalState<T>` to CVE observations:
```csharp
// In Feedser: EpssSignalAttacher
public async Task<SignalState<EpssEvidence>> AttachEpssAsync(string cveId, CancellationToken ct)
{
try
{
var evidence = await _epssClient.GetScoreAsync(cveId, ct);
return new SignalState<EpssEvidence>
{
Status = SignalQueryStatus.Queried,
Value = evidence,
QueriedAt = _timeProvider.GetUtcNow(),
Source = "first.org"
};
}
catch (EpssNotFoundException)
{
return new SignalState<EpssEvidence>
{
Status = SignalQueryStatus.Queried,
Value = null,
QueriedAt = _timeProvider.GetUtcNow(),
Source = "first.org"
};
}
catch (Exception ex)
{
return new SignalState<EpssEvidence>
{
Status = SignalQueryStatus.Failed,
Value = null,
FailureReason = ex.Message
};
}
}
```
### Policy Engine Gate
```csharp
// In Policy.Engine: DeterminizationGate
public sealed class DeterminizationGate : IPolicyGate
{
private readonly IDeterminizationPolicy _policy;
private readonly IUncertaintyScoreCalculator _uncertaintyCalculator;
private readonly IDecayedConfidenceCalculator _decayCalculator;
public async Task<GateResult> EvaluateAsync(PolicyEvaluationContext ctx, CancellationToken ct)
{
var snapshot = await BuildSignalSnapshotAsync(ctx, ct);
var uncertainty = _uncertaintyCalculator.Calculate(snapshot);
var decay = _decayCalculator.Calculate(snapshot.CapturedAt, ctx.Options.DecayHalfLife);
var determCtx = new DeterminizationContext
{
SignalSnapshot = snapshot,
UncertaintyScore = uncertainty,
Decay = decay,
TrustScore = ctx.TrustScore,
Environment = ctx.Environment
};
var result = _policy.Evaluate(determCtx);
return new GateResult
{
Passed = result.Status is PolicyVerdictStatus.Pass or PolicyVerdictStatus.GuardedPass,
Status = result.Status,
Reason = result.Reason,
GuardRails = result.GuardRails,
Metadata = new Dictionary<string, object>
{
["uncertainty_entropy"] = uncertainty.Entropy,
["uncertainty_tier"] = uncertainty.Tier.ToString(),
["decay_multiplier"] = decay.DecayedMultiplier,
["missing_signals"] = uncertainty.MissingSignals.Select(g => g.SignalName).ToArray()
}
};
}
}
```
### Graph Integration
CVE nodes in the Graph module carry `ObservationState` and `UncertaintyScore`:
```csharp
// Extended CVE node for Graph module
public sealed record CveObservationNode
{
public required string CveId { get; init; }
public required string SubjectPurl { get; init; }
// VEX status (orthogonal to observation state)
public required VexClaimStatus? VexStatus { get; init; }
// Observation lifecycle state
public required ObservationState ObservationState { get; init; }
// Knowledge completeness
public required UncertaintyScore Uncertainty { get; init; }
// Evidence freshness
public required ObservationDecay Decay { get; init; }
// Trust score (from confidence aggregation)
public required double TrustScore { get; init; }
// Policy outcome
public required PolicyVerdictStatus PolicyHint { get; init; }
// Guardrails if GuardedPass
public GuardRails? GuardRails { get; init; }
}
```
## Event-Driven Re-evaluation
When new signals arrive, the system re-evaluates affected observations:
```csharp
public sealed class SignalUpdateHandler : ISignalUpdateSubscription
{
private readonly IObservationRepository _observations;
private readonly IDeterminizationPolicy _policy;
private readonly IEventPublisher _events;
public async Task HandleAsync(SignalUpdatedEvent evt, CancellationToken ct)
{
// Find observations affected by this signal
var affected = await _observations.FindByCveAndPurlAsync(evt.CveId, evt.Purl, ct);
foreach (var obs in affected)
{
// Rebuild signal snapshot
var snapshot = await BuildCurrentSnapshotAsync(obs, ct);
// Recalculate uncertainty
var uncertainty = _uncertaintyCalculator.Calculate(snapshot);
// Re-evaluate policy
var result = _policy.Evaluate(new DeterminizationContext
{
SignalSnapshot = snapshot,
UncertaintyScore = uncertainty,
// ... other context
});
// Transition state if needed
var newState = DetermineNewState(obs.ObservationState, result, uncertainty);
if (newState != obs.ObservationState)
{
await _observations.UpdateStateAsync(obs.Id, newState, ct);
await _events.PublishAsync(new ObservationStateChangedEvent(
obs.Id, obs.ObservationState, newState, result.Reason), ct);
}
}
}
private ObservationState DetermineNewState(
ObservationState current,
DeterminizationResult result,
UncertaintyScore uncertainty)
{
// Transition logic
if (result.Status == PolicyVerdictStatus.Escalated)
return ObservationState.ManualReviewRequired;
if (uncertainty.Tier == UncertaintyTier.VeryLow)
return ObservationState.Determined;
if (current == ObservationState.PendingDeterminization &&
uncertainty.Tier <= UncertaintyTier.Low)
return ObservationState.Determined;
return current;
}
}
```
## Configuration
```csharp
public sealed class DeterminizationOptions
{
/// <summary>EPSS score that triggers quarantine (block). Default: 0.4</summary>
public double EpssQuarantineThreshold { get; set; } = 0.4;
/// <summary>Trust score threshold for guarded allow. Default: 0.5</summary>
public double GuardedAllowScoreThreshold { get; set; } = 0.5;
/// <summary>Entropy threshold for guarded allow. Default: 0.4</summary>
public double GuardedAllowEntropyThreshold { get; set; } = 0.4;
/// <summary>Entropy threshold for production block. Default: 0.3</summary>
public double ProductionBlockEntropyThreshold { get; set; } = 0.3;
/// <summary>Half-life for evidence decay in days. Default: 14</summary>
public int DecayHalfLifeDays { get; set; } = 14;
/// <summary>Minimum confidence floor after decay. Default: 0.35</summary>
public double DecayFloor { get; set; } = 0.35;
/// <summary>Review interval for guarded observations in days. Default: 7</summary>
public int GuardedReviewIntervalDays { get; set; } = 7;
/// <summary>Maximum time in guarded state in days. Default: 30</summary>
public int MaxGuardedDurationDays { get; set; } = 30;
/// <summary>Signal weights for uncertainty calculation.</summary>
public SignalWeights SignalWeights { get; set; } = new();
/// <summary>Per-environment threshold overrides.</summary>
public Dictionary<string, EnvironmentThresholds> EnvironmentThresholds { get; set; } = new();
}
```
## Verdict Status Extension
Extended `PolicyVerdictStatus` enum:
```csharp
public enum PolicyVerdictStatus
{
Pass = 0, // Finding meets policy requirements
GuardedPass = 1, // NEW: Allow with runtime monitoring enabled
Blocked = 2, // Finding fails policy checks; must be remediated
Ignored = 3, // Finding deliberately ignored via exception
Warned = 4, // Finding passes but with warnings
Deferred = 5, // Decision deferred; needs additional evidence
Escalated = 6, // Decision escalated for human review
RequiresVex = 7 // VEX statement required to make decision
}
```
## Metrics & Observability
```csharp
public static class DeterminizationMetrics
{
// Counters
public static readonly Counter<int> ObservationsCreated =
Meter.CreateCounter<int>("stellaops_determinization_observations_created_total");
public static readonly Counter<int> StateTransitions =
Meter.CreateCounter<int>("stellaops_determinization_state_transitions_total");
public static readonly Counter<int> PolicyEvaluations =
Meter.CreateCounter<int>("stellaops_determinization_policy_evaluations_total");
// Histograms
public static readonly Histogram<double> UncertaintyEntropy =
Meter.CreateHistogram<double>("stellaops_determinization_uncertainty_entropy");
public static readonly Histogram<double> DecayMultiplier =
Meter.CreateHistogram<double>("stellaops_determinization_decay_multiplier");
// Gauges
public static readonly ObservableGauge<int> PendingObservations =
Meter.CreateObservableGauge<int>("stellaops_determinization_pending_observations",
() => /* query count */);
public static readonly ObservableGauge<int> StaleObservations =
Meter.CreateObservableGauge<int>("stellaops_determinization_stale_observations",
() => /* query count */);
}
```
## Testing Strategy
| Test Category | Focus Area | Example |
|---------------|------------|---------|
| Unit | Uncertainty calculation | Missing 2 signals = correct entropy |
| Unit | Decay calculation | 14 days = 50% multiplier |
| Unit | Policy rules | EPSS 0.5 + dev = guarded allow |
| Integration | Signal attachment | Feedser EPSS query → SignalState |
| Integration | State transitions | New VEX → PendingDeterminization → Determined |
| Determinism | Same input → same output | Canonical snapshot → reproducible entropy |
| Property | Entropy bounds | Always [0.0, 1.0] |
| Property | Decay monotonicity | Older → lower multiplier |
## Security Considerations
1. **No Guessing:** Missing signals use explicit priors, never random values
2. **Audit Trail:** Every state transition logged with evidence snapshot
3. **Conservative Defaults:** Production blocks high entropy; only non-prod allows guardrails
4. **Escalation Path:** Runtime evidence always escalates regardless of other signals
5. **Tamper Detection:** Signal snapshots hashed for integrity verification
## References
- Product Advisory: "Unknown CVEs: graceful placeholders, not blockers"
- Existing: `src/Policy/__Libraries/StellaOps.Policy.Unknowns/`
- Existing: `src/Policy/__Libraries/StellaOps.Policy/Confidence/`
- Existing: `src/Excititor/__Libraries/StellaOps.Excititor.Core/TrustVector/`
- OpenVEX Specification: https://openvex.dev/
- EPSS Model: https://www.first.org/epss/

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# Verdict Rationale Template
> **Status:** Implemented (SPRINT_20260106_001_001_LB)
> **Library:** `StellaOps.Policy.Explainability`
> **API Endpoint:** `GET /api/v1/triage/findings/{findingId}/rationale`
> **CLI Command:** `stella verdict rationale <finding-id>`
---
## Overview
**Verdict Rationales** provide human-readable explanations for policy verdicts using a standardized 4-line template. Each rationale explains:
1. **Evidence:** What vulnerability was found and where
2. **Policy Clause:** Which policy rule triggered the decision
3. **Attestations:** What proofs support the verdict
4. **Decision:** Final verdict with recommendation
Rationales are content-addressed (same inputs produce same rationale ID), enabling caching and deduplication.
---
## 4-Line Template
Every verdict rationale follows this structure:
```
Line 1 - Evidence: CVE-2024-XXXX in `libxyz` 1.2.3; symbol `foo_read` reachable from `/usr/bin/tool`.
Line 2 - Policy: Policy S2.1: reachable+EPSS>=0.2 => triage=P1.
Line 3 - Attestations: Build-ID match to vendor advisory; call-path: `main->parse->foo_read`.
Line 4 - Decision: Affected (score 0.72). Mitigation recommended: upgrade or backport KB-123.
```
### Template Components
| Line | Purpose | Content |
|------|---------|---------|
| **Evidence** | What was found | CVE ID, component PURL, version, reachability info |
| **Policy Clause** | Why decision was made | Policy rule ID, expression, triage priority |
| **Attestations** | Supporting proofs | Build-ID matches, call paths, VEX statements, provenance |
| **Decision** | What to do | Verdict status, risk score, recommendation, mitigation |
---
## API Usage
### Get Rationale (JSON)
```bash
curl -H "Authorization: Bearer $TOKEN" \
"https://scanner.example.com/api/v1/triage/findings/12345/rationale?format=json"
```
**Response:**
```json
{
"finding_id": "12345",
"rationale_id": "rationale:sha256:abc123...",
"schema_version": "1.0",
"evidence": {
"cve": "CVE-2024-1234",
"component_purl": "pkg:npm/lodash@4.17.20",
"component_version": "4.17.20",
"vulnerable_function": "template",
"entry_point": "/app/src/index.js",
"text": "CVE-2024-1234 in `pkg:npm/lodash@4.17.20` 4.17.20; symbol `template` reachable from `/app/src/index.js`."
},
"policy_clause": {
"clause_id": "S2.1",
"rule_description": "High severity with reachability",
"conditions": ["severity>=high", "reachable=true"],
"text": "Policy S2.1: severity>=high AND reachable=true => triage=P1."
},
"attestations": {
"path_witness": {
"id": "witness-789",
"type": "path-witness",
"digest": "sha256:def456...",
"summary": "Path witness from scanner"
},
"vex_statements": [
{
"id": "vex-001",
"type": "vex",
"digest": "sha256:ghi789...",
"summary": "Affected: from vendor.example.com"
}
],
"provenance": null,
"text": "Path witness from scanner; VEX statement: Affected from vendor.example.com."
},
"decision": {
"verdict": "Affected",
"score": 0.72,
"recommendation": "Upgrade to version 4.17.21",
"mitigation": {
"action": "upgrade",
"details": "Upgrade to 4.17.21 or later"
},
"text": "Affected (score 0.72). Mitigation recommended: Upgrade to version 4.17.21."
},
"generated_at": "2026-01-07T12:00:00Z",
"input_digests": {
"verdict_digest": "sha256:abc123...",
"policy_digest": "sha256:def456...",
"evidence_digest": "sha256:ghi789..."
}
}
```
### Get Rationale (Plain Text)
```bash
curl -H "Authorization: Bearer $TOKEN" \
"https://scanner.example.com/api/v1/triage/findings/12345/rationale?format=plaintext"
```
**Response:**
```json
{
"finding_id": "12345",
"rationale_id": "rationale:sha256:abc123...",
"format": "plaintext",
"content": "CVE-2024-1234 in `pkg:npm/lodash@4.17.20` 4.17.20; symbol `template` reachable from `/app/src/index.js`.\nPolicy S2.1: severity>=high AND reachable=true => triage=P1.\nPath witness from scanner; VEX statement: Affected from vendor.example.com.\nAffected (score 0.72). Mitigation recommended: Upgrade to version 4.17.21."
}
```
### Get Rationale (Markdown)
```bash
curl -H "Authorization: Bearer $TOKEN" \
"https://scanner.example.com/api/v1/triage/findings/12345/rationale?format=markdown"
```
**Response:**
```json
{
"finding_id": "12345",
"rationale_id": "rationale:sha256:abc123...",
"format": "markdown",
"content": "**Evidence:** CVE-2024-1234 in `pkg:npm/lodash@4.17.20` 4.17.20; symbol `template` reachable from `/app/src/index.js`.\n\n**Policy:** Policy S2.1: severity>=high AND reachable=true => triage=P1.\n\n**Attestations:** Path witness from scanner; VEX statement: Affected from vendor.example.com.\n\n**Decision:** Affected (score 0.72). Mitigation recommended: Upgrade to version 4.17.21."
}
```
---
## CLI Usage
### Table Output (Default)
```bash
stella verdict rationale 12345
```
```
Finding: 12345
Rationale ID: rationale:sha256:abc123...
Generated: 2026-01-07T12:00:00Z
+--------------------------------------+
| 1. Evidence |
+--------------------------------------+
| CVE-2024-1234 in `pkg:npm/lodash... |
+--------------------------------------+
+--------------------------------------+
| 2. Policy Clause |
+--------------------------------------+
| Policy S2.1: severity>=high AND... |
+--------------------------------------+
+--------------------------------------+
| 3. Attestations |
+--------------------------------------+
| Path witness from scanner; VEX... |
+--------------------------------------+
+--------------------------------------+
| 4. Decision |
+--------------------------------------+
| Affected (score 0.72). Mitigation... |
+--------------------------------------+
```
### JSON Output
```bash
stella verdict rationale 12345 --output json
```
### Markdown Output
```bash
stella verdict rationale 12345 --output markdown
```
### Plain Text Output
```bash
stella verdict rationale 12345 --output text
```
### With Tenant
```bash
stella verdict rationale 12345 --tenant acme-corp
```
---
## Integration
### Service Registration
```csharp
// In Program.cs or service configuration
services.AddVerdictExplainability();
services.AddScoped<IFindingRationaleService, FindingRationaleService>();
```
### Programmatic Usage
```csharp
// Inject IVerdictRationaleRenderer
public class MyService
{
private readonly IVerdictRationaleRenderer _renderer;
public MyService(IVerdictRationaleRenderer renderer)
{
_renderer = renderer;
}
public string GetExplanation(VerdictRationaleInput input)
{
var rationale = _renderer.Render(input);
return _renderer.RenderPlainText(rationale);
}
}
```
---
## Input Requirements
The `VerdictRationaleInput` requires:
| Field | Type | Required | Description |
|-------|------|----------|-------------|
| `VerdictRef` | `VerdictReference` | Yes | Reference to verdict attestation |
| `Cve` | `string` | Yes | CVE identifier |
| `Component` | `ComponentIdentity` | Yes | Component PURL, name, version |
| `Reachability` | `ReachabilityDetail` | No | Vulnerable function, entry point |
| `PolicyClauseId` | `string` | Yes | Policy clause that triggered verdict |
| `PolicyRuleDescription` | `string` | Yes | Human-readable rule description |
| `PolicyConditions` | `List<string>` | No | Matched conditions |
| `PathWitness` | `AttestationReference` | No | Path witness attestation |
| `VexStatements` | `List<AttestationReference>` | No | VEX statement references |
| `Provenance` | `AttestationReference` | No | Provenance attestation |
| `Verdict` | `string` | Yes | Final verdict status |
| `Score` | `double?` | No | Risk score (0-1) |
| `Recommendation` | `string` | Yes | Recommended action |
| `Mitigation` | `MitigationGuidance` | No | Specific mitigation guidance |
---
## Determinism
Rationales are **content-addressed**: the same inputs always produce the same `rationale_id`. This enables:
- **Caching:** Store and retrieve rationales by ID
- **Deduplication:** Avoid regenerating identical rationales
- **Verification:** Confirm rationale wasn't modified after generation
The rationale ID is computed as:
```
sha256(canonical_json(verdict_id + witness_id + score_factors))
```
---
## Related Documents
- [Verdict Attestations](verdict-attestations.md) - Cryptographic verdict proofs
- [Policy DSL](dsl.md) - Policy rule syntax
- [Scoring Profiles](scoring-profiles.md) - Risk score computation
- [VEX Trust Model](vex-trust-model.md) - VEX statement handling